Padres’ spring training rotation watch has one uneasy question still looming

The San Diego Padres can walk into Peoria and pretend the rotation is settled — but the whole thing still hinges on how many “normal” starts can they realistically expect from Joe Musgrove and Michael King before the season starts asking for Plan B?

On paper, the top looks clean. Nick Pivetta feels like the obvious Opening Day choice, and Randy Vásquez has done enough to stop being treated like a placeholder. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell even frames it that way in his early roster projection: Pivetta at the front, Vásquez holding a back-end seat, and a competition forming behind them. 

Padres’ spring training rotation watch comes with one uncomfortable catch

Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John, and the Padres aren’t even hiding that the ramp-up could be managed carefully. Cassavell notes Musgrove himself has talked about being “slow-played,” even acknowledging that skipping a start or getting pushed back might be part of the deal if it keeps him viable later in the year. 

Then there’s King, who made only 15 starts last season in Cassavell’s projection. If you’re counting on him to hop back into a full, sturdy starter’s workload without a hiccup, you’re basically daring baseball to ruin your month.

That’s why the fifth-starter “battle” is less fun competition and more a stress test. JP Sears is penciled in among the five in that projection, with Matt Waldron, Triston McKenzie, and Marco Gonzales also in the mix for that final lane. It’s a group with paths to usefulness — and also a group that’s extremely volatile, with the possibility that half of them may not even be on the roster with the season begins. 

The Padres don’t need another headline-grabbing ace. But they need one more boring, functional adult in the room. Someone who can take the ball, wear six innings, and keep the bullpen from getting cooked too early into the season.

Preller knows this. The Padres have made a habit of finding rotation help after camp begins — Manaea, Wacha, Cease, Pivetta — basically turning “late pitching addition” into an annual tradition. 

So, the rotation looks fine… if everything goes smoothly. The problem is the Padres are built around October dreams, and “smoothly” is never the part you should bet on.