Padres’ rotation prediction is a thrill ride built on one uneasy assumption

The San Diego Padres' starting rotation remains uncomfortably thin behind their leading triumvirate of Michael King, Nick Pivetta, and Joe Musgrove, hence why they've signed so many depth arms on short-term deals this offseason.

However, in order to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, the starting five needs a little more juice. Nearly all of the best options are off the board, though, and any marquee trade targets would demand too much from a depleted farm system.

So, that leaves A.J. Preller and company with the path of chasing a bounce-back candidate; someone with a history of success, but enough red flags to warrant a pillow contract in free agency.

Even those kinds of players are few and far between with spring training approaching, but, according to Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter, one may stand out above the rest for the Friars: Zac Gallen.

Zac Gallen would be high-risk, high-reward bet for Padres in free agency

Reuter naturally suggests that King and Pivetta will handle co-ace duties in San Diego in 2026 in his rotation predictions for every MLB team, but the B/R scribe then makes a wild assumption for the No. 3 spot: Gallen will sign with the Padres.

That would obviously help limit the stress of Musgrove and Randy Vásquez in the back of the rotation, and it would also mean that someone like JP Sears or Triston McKenzie doesn't need to be relied on to eat innings on a regular basis. But it's also a bold prediction consider's Gallen's follies and the Padres' own limited budget.

As a reminder, Gallen was far from his best in 2025, allowing a 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP in 192.0 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, prior to that, he was responsible for a 3.29 ERA and 19.6 bWAR. Notably, he finished inside the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting three times in a four-year span from 2020-23.

His mechanics were out of whack last year and concerns about how his fastball will age as he crosses the dreaded threshold of 30 are valid, but this is a hurler with a long history of pitching like a frontline starter. Heck, he was the anchor in the Diamondbacks' rotation when they went to the World Series in 2023.

The Padres have been connected to the right-hander this offseason, though that was before they re-signed King to a there-year, $75 million deal. Gallen is represented by Scott Boras, meaning that it could be difficult to get him to accept a lesser offer or a role reduction (at least in terms of staff importance).

Still, the 30-year-old needs a home for the 2026 season if he hopes to rebuild his value. Even if he has to settle for a below-market deal, partnering up with a playoff-caliber team in a pitcher-friendly stadium would significantly increase Gallen's chances of getting the nine-figure contract he once seem destined for.

Of course, even if he does accept a contract that fits the Padres' tight budget, it's no sure thing that he'll return to his prime form. And with so much of the rotation hinging on Joe Musgrove immediately impressing upon his return from an 18-month layoff, perhaps going after a pitcher who offers more stability would be a wiser bet.

But you don't win championships with high floors. It requires upside, and Gallen has that in spades.