Padres should pass on pricey veteran outfielder in free agency

Cody Bellinger is entering free agency for the third time in four seasons. He opted out of his final season with the Cubs last year, and he’s now doing the same with the Yankees, putting the San Diego Padres squarely in the rumor mill again.

It will be interesting to see if Bellinger is able to secure a long-term deal this offseason, after failing to do so in previous years. He is coming off his best season since 2019, when he won the NL MVP, and his second most valuable season of his career, but at 30 years old, he'll also likely be looking for significant money as he enters the second half of his career.

Padres should pass on Cody Bellinger’s price tag this winter

While the Padres could probably use help in their outfield, they should stay away from a player like Bellinger. Bellinger has been up and down throughout his career, but coming off the heels of a 5-WAR season in 2025 and a 4.8-WAR season in 2023, he will be expensive. The Padres, simply put, do not have that kind of money to deal out. Especially not on a guy like Bellinger, who has displayed inconsistent tendencies in his career.

It would be different if San Diego did not already have Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. signed to massive long-term deals. Not to mention Yu Darvish, the veteran starter who is owed money for three more years as well.

The Padres' veterans on the left side of their infield are simply too costly to make a Bellinger acquisition worthwhile. The chances are too high that Bellinger would become another Bogaerts-like contract, eating up significant money and being an inconsistent veteran with league-average splits.

The Padres probably wish they could have the Bogaerts contract back. They would be wise not to make the mistake again with Bellinger.

Plus, their outfield is not in that dire need of help.

It's very likely that San Diego will roll with an outfield of Fernando Tatis Jr, Jackson Merrill, and Ramon Laureano to start the 2026 season. Gavin Sheets will also likely be back as a platoon option, and so will pinch-hit legend Bryce Johnson.

There is probably an argument that San Diego needs another depth option. It would even make sense to add an everyday left-fielder, and shift Sheets and Laureano into a full-time DH platoon. Although with Laureano providing good defense, the best option might be to add a full-time DH instead.

If San Diego just needs depth, Bellinger’s price tag makes no sense. And even as a true left-field starter, his market still overshoots the Padres’ lane.

There might also be a need at first base, depending on whether the Padres bring back Luis Arraez, but if they do not want to pay Arraez for a long-term deal, it would not make much sense to pay Bellinger more money for a longer-term deal. Bellinger may be the better overall talent today, but since 2020 Arraez has actually edged him in cumulative bWAR (14.9 to 13.3).

While Bellinger probably has higher upside (Arraez has never posted a 5-WAR season, Bellinger has twice), Arraez has proven to be far more consistent.

Ultimately, if the Padres want to spend the money, it is up to them, but it just does not make much sense to give out that kind of contract to Bellinger.