Padres should enjoy Manny Machado’s breakout without pretending crisis is over

The Padres finally got a vintage Manny Machado moment over the weekend. He broke out in a big way with a productive night against the Texas Rangers. He had two extra-base hits, drove in five runs, and launched a go-ahead three-run home run in the 10th inning to give the Padres a win. 

It’s definitely worth a celebration. And with the gaps between the big moments so far this season, Padres fans really deserved it. 

But we can’t get carried away and act like this loud night out in Texas means the crisis is over. It’s far from it. The Padres still have an offense that has spent most of the season making games feel exhausting. They entered this recent stretch averaging an MLB-worst 3.8 runs per game. And that’s why fans need to stay guarded.

Manny Machado gave Padres the moment they needed, but not the proof they need

Machado has earned some grace. He’s been one of the best players of his generation, one of the defining stars of this Padres era. We know how dangerous Machado can be in the box.

Then, in the 10th, Machado finally gave the Padres the swing they’ve been waiting on. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Samad Taylor aboard, he got a 2-0 pitch and launched it into the left-center-field seats. It was a great moment. The problem is that the Padres need much more of that.

Machado had 13 hits in all of May. He finished that month batting .127. Now here we are on June 21, and he “already” has 13 hits this month. So, that’s progress. At the very least, June will not be May. But that’s still setting the bar very low.

Machado is hitting just .188 in June. When a player is still fighting to get over the Mendoza Line for the month, it’s too early to frame anything as a turnaround. It can be the beginning of one. But a breakout? Definitely not.

Padres cannot let one Manny Machado swing cloud the bigger deadline picture

A.J. Preller and the front office can’t look at one big Machado game and immediately believe things are turning around. Especially with the trade deadline approaching. That’s how you can get tricked into explaining away why you don’t need to get more help in the lineup.

And to be fair, there are some signs that point toward at least a little correction. Machado’s batting average has been horrendous (.178), but his expected batting average (.226) entering this stretch suggested there has at least been some bad luck baked into it. But the rest of the profile is still very hard to look at.

The hard-hit rate is down. The strikeouts are up. He’s catching fewer barrels. And the season-long BA is still sitting in a place nobody expected to see attached to Machado’s name.

This is still a good time to enjoy the moment and take the win. Wake up the following morning and keep looking for progress.

Because the Padres still need help. And one big swing doesn’t erase what has come before it this season. If this gives Machado momentum and he truly turns it around, that’s great. It’s the best possible internal upgrade. 

But the Padres cannot assume it is happening just because he finally gave them the swing they were desperate to see.

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