Padres’ fragile rotation depth gets uncomfortably real behind Musgrove’s comeback

The Padres don’t have a “rotation question” heading into 2026. It’s a rotation stress test. And the most uncomfortable part is how much of it hinges on Joe Musgrove’s return.

Musgrove being a full go for spring is legitimately good news. A normal offseason. All his pitches. No strict innings cap. On paper, that’s exactly what you want to hear from a guy coming off Tommy John. But “good news” doesn’t erase the reality that San Diego’s margin for error is paper-thin, and the top of the rotation is carrying more medical baggage than certainty.

Padres’ Musgrove watch exposes a dangerous lack of pitching margin

Start with Yu Darvish, who’s expected to miss all of 2026 after elbow surgery in November 2025. Given his age, the severity of the injury, and the most recent news of an inevitable retirement, it’s reasonable to question whether he’ll be able to return at all. Even if everything goes smoothly, a hoped-for 2027 return isn’t the kind of plan that calms anybody down.

Which brings us to Michael King. The Padres need him to be a top-of-the-rotation anchor, but his 2025 workload (75 innings) came with a thoracic nerve issue that can’t just be shrugged off. That’s why the lack of reliable rotation depth behind the top names feels so glaring.

So what’s left? Randy Vásquez and J.P. Sears — two pitchers the Padres may need to trust more than their 2025 indicators suggest. They can cover innings, sure. But if they’re suddenly holding the rotation together because Musgrove stutters or someone else breaks down, that’s when the plan starts to look flimsy.

This is where A.J. Preller has to stop treating pitching depth like an optional accessory. The Padres being linked to mid-tier free-agent starters isn’t exciting — but it’s necessary. Because if Musgrove’s comeback gets even a little sideways, this rotation doesn’t just look thin.

It looks exposed.