Padres’ rotation hinges on Nick Pivetta avoiding a 2026 step back

Nick Pivetta was a revelation for the San Diego Padres in 2025. He stepped up and became the team's ace when they needed him most.

While Pivetta was a cool story in 2025, the Padres' rotation might be even weaker in 2026. That means for better or worse, they will need Pivetta to continue pitching like an ace next year.

Whenever a player has a breakout season like Pivetta did last year, there tends to be a discussion about whether or not the breakout is legit, or if it is a mirage due to luck and optimal circumstances.

Padres can’t afford a Nick Pivetta regression in 2026

Many players have followed up their breakout campaigns with similar great seasons the next year. Other players follow up their breakout campaigns by turning back into pumpkins and never repeating their all-star level performance.

The Padres desperately need to hope the clock does not strike midnight for Pivetta.

To put his breakout into context, here are Pivetta's career numbers over his first eight seasons. From 2017-2024, Pivetta was 56-71 with a 4.76 ERA and a 91 ERA+. He was worth 10.2 bWAR (an average of 1.3 bWAR per season). He had a career 1.316 WHIP and 4.36 FIP.

Last year, Pivetta turned everything. He posted a career-high 5.3 bWAR (more than a third of his career bWAR), a career-best 13-5 record, a career-low ERA (2.87), WHIP (0.985), FIP (3.49), and a career-high 190 strikeouts.

Everything that could have gone right for Pivetta in 2025 did. He blossomed into a star for the Padres and anchored a very inconsistent rotation.

It feels like Pivetta's turnaround came almost out of nowhere, which is why some fans might be worried he will turn back into a pumpkin in 2026. That's not to say he will be bad in 2026, but the Padres can't afford for Pivetta to be average. They are currently slated to lose both Michael King and Dylan Cease, and it's hard to know what veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish will be able to give them, with both dealing with injuries in 2025.

Simply put, the Padres need Pivetta to be an ace again. It is critical for their rotation that his 2025 breakout was not a fluke or a one-year wonder. Pivetta will play a huge role in the Padres' future plans, and he's proven he can be a star for 31 starts. Can he do it for another 30? Time will tell.