Padres’ rebuilt offense is their biggest Wild Card weapon against Cubs

The Padres don’t own an advantage simply because they had a more stressful summer. At one point, every loss threatened to push the Padres back into the Wild Card traffic jam, and each win felt completely necessary.

The real reason the Padres should feel dangerous entering their Wild Card rematch with the Cubs is sitting in the numbers. Through their first 103 games, San Diego ranked 26th in OPS and 24th in runs scored. Over the final 59, the Padres climbed to second in OPS and third in runs.

The Padres finally built an offense around their stars

In that time, Fernando Tatis Jr.  posted a .996 OPS after the All-Star break, second-best in the majors. Merrill produced a .987 OPS during a 56-game stretch from mid-July into September. Ty France kept delivering grown-up at-bats while Samad Taylor, Dustin Harris and others gave the bottom of the order some actual life.

The Padres began creating pressure throughout the lineup, extending innings and punishing pitchers who thought they had survived the dangerous part of the order.

That is what Chicago has to prepare for now. Not the hollow offense it handled while winning five of six regular-season meetings. This version should be able to make a starter work and turn a mistake into a crooked number.

San Diego’s bats can force the Cubs out of their comfort zone

Chicago’s defense is absurd. The Cubs set Statcast-era records with +70 Fielding Run Value and +72 Outs Above Average. So the Padres can’t nibble their way through this series with soft contact and good intentions.

That means their best chance may begin with making Matthew Boyd labor in Game 1 and forcing Craig Counsell to start mixing and matching with a bullpen that doesn’t have a settled closer. Chicago’s rotation finished with a 4.27 ERA, tied for 18th in baseball.

The earlier San Diego attacks, the faster this series bends toward its greatest strength. The bullpen might be their most dominant unit, but even Miller cannot protect a lead the Padres never create.

The 2024 Padres took a 2-1 NLDS lead over the Dodgers and then went scoreless for two games. Last year’s lineup disappeared against these Cubs. That history should kill any temptation to treat San Diego’s offensive turnaround as permanent.

If that offense arrives, the Padres have a weapon capable of breaking open this series. If it disappears again, two months of resilience will become nothing more than a nice story told during another early offseason.

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