Padres' No. 8 playoff power ranking overlooks Petco Park edge against Cubs

Are the San Diego Padres the underdogs in their Wild Card series against the Cubs? MLB.com seems to think so. Despite holding home-field advantage over Chicago, the fourth-seeded Friars are ranked below the fifth-seeded Cubs in MLB.com's playoff power rankings.

Chicago is ranked sixth overall, and San Diego eighth.

It feels harsh, but we could understand why MLB.com would go this route. The Cubs went 5-1 against the Padres this season, and they eliminated the Friars in last year's Wild Card round. Recent head-to-head success favors the Cubs. No harm there. But let's peel back the onion a little bit and further understand that the Padres are a very different team than they were a year ago, as well as when they last played Chicago in late June.

Petco Park is grounds for success for the Padres

This year, the Padres are 51-30 at home. That's a win in 63 percent of games at Petco Park. For better perspective, the Dodgers had the same home record as the Padres in 2026. So, when you're talking about hosting all three games in the playoffs, you'd think that the Padres would be favored, right?

Plus, San Diego is a much better team right now. When they were swept by the Cubs a few months ago, it was part of an eight-game losing streak that put the Friars under .500. It was a dark period of the season, but the Padres came storming back and went 43-23 in the second half of the schedule.

The Padres won nine of their last 10 home series. Jackson Merrill hit 11 home runs in the last two months. Fernando Tatis Jr. batted .337 in September. Jason Adam is back in the bullpen's mix.

All things considered, the Padres are currently red-hot and healthy. Those two things, while having home-field advantage, should put San Diego above Chicago in the rankings — even if they have this year's MVP. The Padres are going into the postseason on better terms, but we'll see how it plays out.

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