Padres-Cubs NL Wild Card rematch will define San Diego’s 2026 turnaround

Remember when the Padres took a beatdown 23-3? It was the score staring back at them when the Cubs finished using Wrigley Field as their personal driving range on July 1. They launched eight home runs. Dansby Swanson hit three of them and drove in eight. The Cubs completed a sweep, and San Diego left town 43-42.

The Padres didn’t change overnight after that. They eventually dropped all the way to 50-53 and were in 11th place in the NL later that month. The 23-3 game still captures the ugliest version 2026 saw of this team. Their pitching was unstable. Their offense was inconsistent and they generally just looked like they had no answers. Obviously, we see now that a lot has changed since then.

The Padres who got flattened at Wrigley no longer resemble this team

From that 43-42 mark, the Padres went 47-29 through Saturday’s home-field clincher. This is not the same team the Cubs saw back in July. They turned a season drifting toward a trade-deadline teardown into a 90-win playoff campaign. They kept the core together, added pitching and built enough momentum to steal the top NL Wild Card spot.

The offense made the largest jump. A lineup that spent part of June scraping the bottom of baseball became MLB’s most productive offense in September. Fernando Tatis Jr. rediscovered his power. Jackson Merrill heated up. Manny Machado hit his 30th home run in the victory that secured home field. And Ty France led the charge of unexpected contributors to help shape this lineup. Now, they get to test this change against Chicago.

The Cubs have enough evidence to believe they still own this matchup

We can call the 23-3 game an outlier. It’s probably best to throw away an eight-homer afternoon. The other five meetings have been nothing to sneeze at either. Chicago beat San Diego five times in six tries this season, including two of three at Petco Park. The Cubs also eliminated the Padres from last year’s Wild Card Series. They have beaten this club in close games, slugfests and winner-take-all postseason baseball.

Home field helps. It guarantees that the Padres will sleep in their own beds, play in front of their own crowd and avoid another trip to Wrigley. Petco Park can create all the noise San Diego needs.

San Diego has three games at Petco to turn its worst afternoon into the opening chapter of something much better. We have already seen the humiliation. It’s up to the Padres to change the score.

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