Padres’ Michael King connected to Astros, Cardinals in early 2027 forecast

The first Michael King free-agent forecast has arrived before the Padres can even finish their season. And to be fair, this is if King even reaches the open market. CBS Sports ranked King sixth among potential 2026-27 free agents and listed the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals as early possible landing spots. It’s just a projection, neither club has expressed any interest in pursuing him, and King obviously hasn’t announced that he will leave San Diego.

The forecast still tells us about the market waiting on the other side of his contract decision. King can accept a $28 million salary for 2027 or collect a $5 million buyout and return to free agency. He also holds a $30 million player option for 2028. Walking away would mean surrendering a lot of guaranteed money, but a healthy season has given him a reason to consider it.

King’s 3.03 ERA over 31 starts is front-line production in a free-agent class short on front-line starters. The Padres are watching him outgrow the escape hatch they gave him in this current deal.

The Astros connection makes immediate sense

The Astros have used 18 starting pitchers during an injury-riddled season. Their starting unit currently has the 27th ranked ERA (4.87) in the league. They still operate like a club expecting to play meaningful postseason baseball. Hunter Brown gives them an ace, but everything behind him is either injured or stopgap starters. King would provide them a starter who has proven he can handle a full season and has postseason experience.

He would also arrive without a qualifying-offer penalty. King rejected one before re-signing with San Diego, so he cannot receive another. Any interested team would only have to spend money. No Draft pick attached or additional tax.

The Cardinals fit is more interesting than obvious

St. Louis needs something its projected 2027 rotation doesn’t currently offer in abundance. A dominant arm with swing-and-miss attached. Hunter Dobbins’ second Tommy John surgery removed one possible starter from next year’s picture. The Cardinals’ current rotation locks have supplied decent innings, but their own 2027 rotation outlook acknowledged the eventual need for more strikeout ability. Their best pitching prospects may have a bigger impact in 2028 than 2027.

King would speed up that timeline immediately. The money is the tougher sell. The same Cardinals outlook suggested the club was unlikely to shop at the top of the pitching market. CBS connecting King to St. Louis therefore feels more like a baseball fit than a spending prediction.

Houston and St. Louis are two hypothetical destinations, not the entire market. King has graduated beyond the tier of starter who needs the Padres more than they need him. His performance, health and contract flexibility have created enough leverage for many contending teams to take notice. 

There is a broader warning beyond King. CBS also placed Adrián Morejón third and Casey Mize ninth on the same free-agent list. That gives the Padres three pitchers among its projected top 10.

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