Michael King’s likely opt-out could force Padres to recruit him all over again

The Padres are getting exactly what they’ve needed from Michael King. And it’s all about to get real expensive. They brought King back last winter on a three-year, $75 million deal after injuries ruined much of his 2025 season. The structure gave him an out after both 2026 and 2027. King received security in the deal. The Friars got their ace back without committing to a monster long-term deal.

King being healthy all season really changed the tone. Through Aug. 30, King owns a 3.23 ERA across 27 starts. MLB.com ranks him as the second-best potential free agent this winter, behind Tarik Skubal. Two years and $58 million remain on his contract, and opting out would still put a $5 million buyout in his pocket.

Michael King’s opt-out could reshape the Padres’ 2027 rotation

King doesn’t need to prove he can start and stay healthy after the numbers he has put up this season. He’s been the most reliable arm in the rotation. They’ve spent most of the season searching for reliable innings to put behind him. And the truth is starting pitching gets paid. Durable, October-caliber starting pitching gets paid for years.

King is likely to exercise the clause the Padres handed him. The clause belongs to him, and using it would complete the bargain. He rebuilt his value. Now A.J. Preller may have to make the same sales pitch twice in 12 months.

The second recruitment will be tougher. King already knows the ballpark, clubhouse and expectations. This conversation will center on guaranteed years, total dollars and whether the Padres are prepared to keep a front-line starter through his mid-30s.

The Padres also gave King a qualifying offer after the 2025 season, which he declined before re-signing. Players cannot receive that twice. If King opts out and signs elsewhere this winter, the Padres cannot attach another qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. They would simply lose their rotation leader and begin looking for his replacement. 

That should sharpen the organization’s focus now. San Diego should make its strongest offer before the market gets too crowded. Anything soft will probably make the decision easy for King.

The first contract bought them some time. King used it to restore his standing among baseball’s best starters. And once Skubal is off the market, the dominoes will begin to fall.

If King opts out, there is only a bidding war. They should be ready to recruit him as aggressively as they did the first time, because the original contract has given him every reason to listen to everyone else.

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