Padres’ low-risk Marco Gonzales bet comes with a brutal reminder of the uphill climb

The Padres signed Marco Gonzales because February always exposes the same truth: even the most talented rosters eventually run out of healthy, reliable innings — and the teams that survive are the ones that stockpile solutions before the panic starts.

Gonzales, 34, is exactly that kind of bet. Minor league deal. Coming off August 2024 flexor tendon surgery. Missed all of 2025. The pitch here was always about insurance. San Diego is trying to buy a workable left-handed option who has lived as a durable starter before, and who can slide into whatever role the calendar demands.

Padres’ Marco Gonzales flier is healthy, but the margin already looks thin

Then his first start of late February happened, and it delivered the reminder nobody loves but everyone needs. Gonzales’ line wasn’t pretty: 1.2 innings, five hits, three earned runs, two hit batters, two strikeouts. He gave up hard contact early and strings of singles. That’s the part fans see and immediately want to file under “washed.”

But the real story is harsher and more useful: coming back is never linear, and the Padres are going to have to decide what they’re actually watching for. Early on, it’s not about domination. It’s about whether the arm is there, whether the body is holding, and whether the delivery looks like it belongs on a big-league mound again. By that standard, “emotional but healthy” matters more than the runs.

Still, Gonzales is trying to wedge himself into a depth race that already includes names like Triston McKenzie and Walker Buehler — pitchers with more obvious velocity upside or roster leverage.

That’s why the incentive structure makes perfect sense. If Gonzales makes the Opening Day roster, he can earn up to $2.5 million. In other words: if he’s good enough to matter, he’s cheap enough to love.

This isn’t a signing that should make Padres fans feel confident. It’s a signing that should make them feel realistic.