Padres’ Joe Musgrove comeback hopes put pressure on A.J. Preller’s 2027 rotation plan

If there was an optimal word to describe the situation surrounding the San Diego Padres' rotation, it's "uncertainty." Michael King has opted out, and no one knows if he's going to come back after pitching his way to the top of the free-agent class. Likewise, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize, Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Lucas Giolito, and Germán Marquez are about to become free agents, and there's still a decision to be made with Nick Pivetta's $14 million club option.

That's a lot of talent and depth to be losing in one offseason, especially for a rotation that was already understaffed. The current landscape of the Friars' roster isn't pretty, as only three pitchers -- Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, and Joe Musgrove -- have major-league starting experience with the organization. Suffice it to say, A.J. Preller is going to have to magically find a way to rebuild his pitching staff nearly from scratch over the course of the winter.

Another consequence of these circumstances is flying under the radar, however. Among that aforementioned trio, Musgrove is the only one with an ace-like track record... even though he hasn't made a big-league start in over two years. The pressure is on for him to be both healthy and effective in 2027, which isn't exactly the safest bet in the world.

Joe Musgrove can give Padres quality pitching, but they'll need to look elsewhere for quantity

Musgrove's heroic return during the postseason was certainly a highlight of the Padres' playoff run, as he threw three scoreless innings combined against the two best regular-season offenses in baseball (the Cubs and Brewers).

However, he still hasn't started a game since the second game of the Wild Card Round in 2024, and the last time he threw even 90 pitches in one outing was September 20 of that same year. In other words, it's been a long while since he's had to ask his arm to handle the kind of volume a top-of-the-rotation starter usually handles.

For reference, King threw 185 innings this season over the course of 32 starts. He lasted at least five innings in 28 of those, and he never once threw fewer than 75 pitches. As good as Musgrove once was, does anyone reasonably expect him to get anywhere close to that kind of consistent volume in 2027, nearly three years since he last made a MLB start?

In a best-case scenario, Musgrove can probably give the Padres a quality five-and-dive type of starter; he shouldn't be trusted, at least initially, to last deep into games, but his success during that brief October trial run was a good sign that he can still get good hitters out with regularity. What the Friars need to do is build out a rotation (and bullpen) that can help cover for the volume that his arm probably isn't ready for.

It all comes back to depth, something this organization has been lacking in the rotation for a while. However A.J. Preller goes about addressing that need this offseason, he must do so with the intention of protecting Musgrove as much as possible.

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