Padres’ growing rotation pressure puts one forgotten option at a revealing crossroads

Nick Pivetta's elbow inflammation injury (and subsequent placement on the injured list) could not have come at a worse time for the San Diego Padres, who have won 10 of their last 12 games and are just a few games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead.

Losing your Opening Day starter would be a backbreaking blow for any team, but especially the Friars, who entered the year with massive rotation questions to begin with. Now that Joe Musgrove is in setback purgatory and Pivetta is joining him (and Griffin Canning) on the IL, it appears that it'll be up to knuckleballer Matt Waldron to hold down the fort.

Waldron was shut down early in camp with a non-baseball-related injury (he underwent a procedure for a hemorrhoid) but has since been tearing it up in Triple-A EL Paso, tossing 12 scoreless innings across three starts while walking just one batter.

He's earned this opportunity, but if he failts to capitalize, it could be his swan song in a Padres uniform.

Matt Waldron is facing the most important test of his Padres career as Nick Pivetta's injury replacement

Waldron was meant to compete for one of the Padres' back-end-of-the-rotation jobs in camp, but his injury ended that competition prematurely. With both German Marquez and Walker Buehler struggling to start the year, his return to San Diego will hopefully stabilize the middle of the rotation.

Of course, his leash won't be long. Pivetta and Canning are hopeful to return relatively soon, while JP Sears looms as another option to cover innings if Waldron falters. The team has also been mentioned as a prime suitor for free-agent pitcher Lucas Giolito, who shouldn't need much of a ramp-up period as he's keeping himself game ready in prepartion for a new contract.

Those are the circumstances in which the 29-year-old knuckleballer finds himself, though there are reasons to be optimistic about his chances of success. He's produced a .204 xwOBA in Triple-A this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile for the level. He's also flashed tremendous command, working a 30.8% strikeout rate that dwarfs his 2.6% walk rate.

Intriguingly, he's also backed way off his signature knuckleball. That offering has always been the lead in his repertoire, but this year, he's throwing it just 25.6% of the time. His two primary fastballs -- his four-seamer (26.9%) and sinker (23.7%) -- are both hovering right around the same area. That change is working well, seeing as his sinker is his best pitch by Stuff+ models (101).

That's a fascinating development to monitor as he prepares for his San Diego season debut on April 17. It's not the evolution anyone expected from baseball's last remaining knuckleballer, but perhaps it's the one that'll save his career.

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