Padres have a spring battle that could decide one pitcher's future

The difference between one year can be revelating for some, but devastating for others. Going into the 2025 season last year, there was a lot of positivity surrounding Padres knuckle-baller Matt Waldron.

He was coming off somewhat of a breakout season, logging 26 starts in 2024 with a solid weak contact rate and walk rate. Waldron was vying for a spot in the bottom of the starting rotation, which was essentially his for the taking.

But then, just ahead of Opening Day, Waldron was placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain, which was the start of a tumultuous 2025 season for him. He made one start in the bigs last year, and he did not impress much in the minor leagues, either.

One year removed from a promising season, Waldron's future is now unclear following multiple bumps in the road.

Matt Waldron may not have a spot in the Padres' starting rotation for the 2026 season

Waldron ultimately struggled with Triple-A El Paso in 2025, generating 6.67 ERA in 82.1 innings with a .309 batting average against. Across three levels in the minors, he sported a 6.48 ERA in 2025.

Now 29 years old, Waldron will mainly be competing with JP Sears, Kyle Hart, and Miguel Mendez for a fifth spot in the rotation. Mendez is on track to making the Opening Day roster, which could spell trouble for Waldron grabbing a spot. San Diego brought back Hart on a one-year deal with a 2027 option, so that tells us that he be may be given a longer leash this year if he struggles mightily.

And then there is Sears, who is on the brink of becoming a strong back-end-of-the-rotation left-hander. Working with Ruben Niebla for an entire offseason can benefit anyone, but especially Sears, who is one tinker away from locking into a consistent starting role.

Waldron has his work cut out for him this spring if he wants to make the Opening Day roster. As it stands, there are at least other pitchers in front of him in the pecking order for the final spot in the starting rotation. It will be a make-or-break spring for him.