Padres’ glaring first base need exposed as Mariners block potential 1B reunion

San Diego Padres fans didn’t really need another reminder that first base is a problem, but the Seattle Mariners just provided one anyway. While San Diego continues to juggle rotation questions, payroll concerns, a potential sale of the franchise, and roster holes all over the depth chart, Seattle quietly took one of the cleanest fixes for first base off the board. 

Josh Naylor — a familiar name in San Diego and a natural fit on paper — is staying in the Pacific Northwest on a long-term deal, shutting down any chance of a storybook reunion before it ever had a chance to breathe.

To be clear, the odds of the Padres actually landing Naylor were always slim. The Mariners were loud and clear from the jump that re-signing him was their top offseason priority, and they backed that up with action, hammering out a five-year pact on November 16, before the first-base market had time to settle. San Diego, meanwhile, is staring at a litany of issues that go well beyond one position. But even if Naylor was more “what if” than realistic target, the timing of Seattle’s move still throws a harsh spotlight on how exposed the Padres are at first base heading into 2026.

Josh Naylor’s Mariners deal is another reminder of Padres’ first base problem

Seattle treated Naylor as business they needed done yesterday. After watching him transform their lineup and help power a run to the American League Championship Series following his July 24 trade from Arizona, the Mariners moved quickly to make sure he never hit the open market in any meaningful way. He was the first major free agent first baseman to come off the board this winter, and he did so with 20 homers, 92 RBI, and an .816 OPS in his back pocket — production that plays in any ballpark, including Petco.

That’s where the “beat the Padres to the punch” framing comes into play. On paper, San Diego checked all the boxes for a Naylor reunion. They have a glaring vacancy at first — some options, but no clear in-house answer for 2026 — they know the player well from his time in brown and gold, and they’ve never been shy about dipping back into their own history when a fit makes sense.

Naylor debuted with the Padres in 2019 and showed flashes of the hitter he’d become, posting a solid average (.249) and a contact-oriented approach before being shipped to Cleveland in August 2020 as part of a multi-player trade. In a different financial and roster climate, this winter could have been the clean symmetry of bringing him back to fill a need he once projected to solve.

Instead, that symmetry is happening somewhere else. The Mariners spent prospect capital to get Naylor, sending lefty Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi to the Diamondbacks in July, then doubled down by paying to keep him. That’s decisive roster-building: identify the bat you believe in, buy in hard, and close the door before anyone else has a shot. For the Padres, watching their “friendly Eddie Vedder Cup” rival lock in an impact first baseman doesn’t sting because they “missed” on Naylor — that outcome was unlikely from the moment Seattle labeled him Priority No. 1 — but because it underscores how little margin for error they have at a position that can’t be patched forever.

In the end, Naylor staying in Seattle is less an indictment of the Padres’ front office and more a reflection of how quickly aggressive teams can reshape a problem spot when they commit to a solution. But the effect on San Diego is the same: their glaring need at first base looks even brighter under the spotlight of a rival’s early offseason win.