Padres risk malpractice if they skip this winter’s deep first baseman market

The San Diego Padres built the league's best bullpen, a star-studded rotation, and one of the deepest casts of brand-name position player talent in 2025, and yet they couldn't even escape the NL Wild Card Round against the Chicago Cubs.

That was mostly due to the faltering of that supposedly loaded offense, which managed just five runs in three games against the Cubs. During the regular season, the team was shockingly incompetent at the plate for large swaths of time.

Among all MLB teams in 2025, the Padres ranked 28th in home runs (152), 18th in runs scored (702), 16th in OPS (.711), 28th in ISO (.138), and 13th in wRC+ (102). Those numbers simply aren't going to get the job done against the best teams in baseball, even if the bullpen continues to be otherworldly.

Padres can choose from elite 1B free agents to replace Luis Arraez, Ryan O'Hearn

Though just about everyone besides Silver Slugger winner Manny Machado, franchise star Fernando Tatis Jr., and trade deadline acquisition Ramon Laureano struggled for most of the season, it's hard not to lament the lack of production the team got from the first base position.

Luis Arraez was entrusted as the starter at the cold corner, but the contact maven petered out in 2025. He hit .292/.327/.392 (104 wRC+) in 675 plate appearances, and mid-season pickup Ryan O'Hearn didn't fare much better (.276/.350/.387, 112 wRC+).

Both players are now free agents, and it doesn't look too likely that the Padres will retain either one. Luckily, there's a deep free-agent class at the position this offseason, and San Diego may be able to add some much-needed punch to the lineup at varying price levels.

There are seven first basemen listed on MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free agent list, though two are Arraez and O'Hearn.

The others are Japanese sensation Munetaka Murakami, versatile defender Cody Bellinger, slugger Pete Alonso, postseason hero Josh Naylor, and NPB superstar Kazuma Okamoto.

Okamoto (.322/.411/.581 in 2025) is the only one attached to the Padres by name, but all of those players can be fortune-changing middle-of-the-order bats.

Murakami (.286/.392/.659) is the youngest and has the most long-term potential, though he has serious strikeout issues and may cost a fortune after being posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Alonso (.272/.347/.524) and Bellinger (.272/.334/.480) are coming off strong seasons and have had MVP-caliber seasons in the past, and Naylor (.295/.353/.462) would make for a fun reunion story.

If San Diego is feeling serious budget constraints, other options like Josh Bell (.237/.325/.417) and Paul Goldschmidt (.274/.328/.403) can offer thump for cheap, though they alone can't turn around the Padres' moribund offense.

Regardless of who they choose to pursue, the point stands that the Friars will have their pick of the litter when it comes to power-hitting first basemen this winter. Hopefully, they can bring one in and infuse the lineup with some punch ahead of 2026.