Padres’ first base search hits dilemma as troubling data emerges on top NPB slugger

Everyone knows how badly the San Diego Padres need offense this offseason. After scoring just five runs in three games in the NL Wild Card Round and ranking third-to-last in home runs during the regular season, the Friars have to focus on adding thump to the lineup.

One of the easiest places they can do that is first base, which runs shockingly deep in free agency and is wide open in San Diego after the contracts of Luis Arraez and Ryan O'Hearn expired.

Besides maybe Pete Alonso, the crown jewel of that group is Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami. The Padres' penchant for big-game hunting and desire to compete in the Japanese market with the Los Angeles Dodgers make them an obvious suitor for the "Babe Ruth of Higo".

However, Murakami isn't a perfect player, despite his awesome nickname and legendary reputation. In fact, as Jack Baer of Yahoo Sports breaks down, his red flags might be more glaring than his green ones.

Munetaka Murakami's strikeout and velocity problems could give Padres reason for pause in free agent pursuit

The good in Murakami's profile is obvious: he possesses legendary raw power. He's hit 246 home runs in 892 career games in NPB, good for a 162-game pace of 44.67. He has a 56-homer season on his résumé as well, earning the Central League Triple Crown in 2022 while hitting .318 with 134 RBIs.

The problems, though, are equally as obvious. The 25-year-old struck out at a 28.3% rate in 2025, and he's got a huge problem with velocity, as Baer lays out: "This year, Murakami struck out 41.7% of the time against fastballs faster than 93 mph, which is 'Joey Gallo at his nadir' territory. Of the 390,173 fastballs thrown in MLB this year, 62.8% of them were at least 93 mph, per Baseball Savant."

Murakami's 80-grade power is a sight to behold, but his contact skills have rapidly evaporated since his career-best season in 2022. Considering Japanese hitters tend to strike out more once they make the move stateside -- NPB pitchers don't have quite the same raw velocity and stuff as MLB pitchers -- there's a real concern about Murakami's bat translating to the major leagues.

Thanks to the presence of Manny Machado at third base, the Padres don't need to worry about Murakami's defensive questions; they can put him at first base from the moment they sign him. The fit is as obvious as it gets.

However, giving any player with significant strikeouts issues a nine-figure contract could prove perilous — just look at what happened to Joey Gallo and Chris Davis in the back-half of their respective careers.

This is a dilemma every team will have to weigh this offseason. It's not often that 25-year-olds with 50-homer pedigree become available in free agency, but it's equally rare for teams to willingly hand hundreds of millions of dollars to players who can't catch up to an average fastball.

The Padres are as big of risk takers as there are in the league, but perhaps Murakami's red flags could be a step too far, even for them.