Padres could face complete 2027 rotation overhaul with Nick Pivetta’s future now in their hands

About six weeks ago, we discussed how a clause in Nick Pivetta's contract could dictate his return from his flexor tendon injury. Basically, there's language that stipulates that he can't miss 130 consecutive days with injury, lest his $14 million player option for 2027 become a club option.

Well, we're now beyond that date (it was around Aug. 22) and Pivetta still hasn't returned. That means the Padres now have a call to make about their Opening Day starter, who was the team's best and more reliable rotation option just last year.

The thing is, that uncertainty also extends out to the rest of the pitching staff as well, meaning the Friars might enter next year with a completely overhauled starting five.

Nick Pivetta's option isn't a sure thing as Padres mull over a myriad of pitching decisions

Pivetta's option will prove to be a fascinating litmus test for new owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, who made it clear in their introductory press conference that while they intend to spend what it takes to build a winner, they won't be handing A.J. Preller a blank checkbook. Whatever financial limitations that imposes (if any) could spell the end of Pivetta's up-and-down tenure in San Diego.

There's also the curious case of Michael King, who remains the team's ace while pitching on a favorable $17 million salary. The problem is that he's got a player option for $28 million this offseason and then another option for $30 million in 2028; he's pitching well enough to earn a long-term contract in free agency, but two years and $58 million guaranteed might be hard to pass up heading into a lockout.

Factor in the team's big trade deadline acquisitions -- Robbie Ray and Casey Mize -- and Walker Buehler, all of whom are impending free agents, and it's possible that the Padres might lose all five of their top starters once the season ends.

That would leave a projected rotation of Joe Musgrove ($20 million salary in 2027, then a free agent), Randy Vasquez (pre-arb), and JP Sears (arbitration) for next year, plus whatever internal depth there is that can be used to fill the other two spots. That is... uninspiring to say the least. It's also why Pivetta's option shouldn't be seen as a lock to be declined just yet.

Preller will surely seek upgrades over the offseason, but even he can't put together a brand new starting five on either side of the lockout. Keeping Pivetta would at least give him two players (alongside Vasquez) to build around, and there's plenty of money set to come off the books, especially if King turns down his own option.

No matter how they end up navigating this, though, it's clear that the Padres will have their work cut out for them in order to field a competitive rotation in 2027 and beyond.

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