As expected, the San Diego Padres' rotation simply hasn't been up to snuff this year. Michael King has done his best to keep the pitching staff afloat, but everyone else who has pitched in the starting five this year is either currently injured or owns an ERA above 4.70.
Naturally, that's not a recipe for success, hence the team's 46-46 record and slim playoff odds. However, the failures of this unit aren't entirely the fault of those who constructed it; three-fifths of the projected Opening Day rotation (Randy Vásquez, Joe Musgrove, and Nick Pivetta) are on the injured list heading into the All-Star Break.
Vásquez is a more recent addition to that group, but he wasn't terribly effective in his 84 innings prior to succumbing to an ankle contusion (4.71 ERA). Meanwhile, Musgrove remains MIA as he rehabs from a never-ending elbow injury.
Then there's Pivetta, the breakout ace of the 2025 team who only made it four starts into this season before being shut down with a strained flexor tendon (which is a forearm injury that sometimes serves as a precursor to elbow troubles). His rehab has been a slow process as well, though there's a stipulation in his contract that may change the equation for the future of the roster.
August 22nd, give or take a day, would be the 130th consecutive day on the IL for Nick Pivetta. It’s a near certainty, barring any setback, that Pivetta will be back by this date. pic.twitter.com/uD12aUS30b
— Xannie Heilbro (@JB_Rad619) July 6, 2026
Nick Pivetta, Padres have varying incentives in right-hander's rush to get back on the mound
To put this in simple terms: Pivetta has two years remaining on his deal after 2026, worth $32 million in total salary combined. However, he has player options between each year, meaning he can opt-out at any point.
What we're focusing on is a bizarre clause in his contract which stipulates that a long-term injury would convert those player options into team options. The exact threshold for "long-term" appears to be 130 days. Thus, Pivetta, who originally hit the IL on April 12, would have to be back by August 22 (or thereabouts) to avoid losing control of his fate.
Might he try to rush back to action in that case? We know he finally began throwing bullpens earlier this week, which gives him ample time (roughly six weeks) to return before that late-August deadline. Then again, any setbacks in the rehab process would basically kill his chances of making it back on time.
The Padres are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place here too; if Pivetta rushes back and gets hurt, then he'll opt into his contract and weigh down the payroll. However, he's so important to the success of the pitching staff that even a compromised Pivetta would be an improvement over what Craig Stammen has had to throw out there on a nightly basis.
It'll be fascinating to see how this saga unfolds, especially with the trade deadline looming in early August.
