Padres' chances of extending their top starters went out the door with Mets' overpay

Heading into the offseason, the assumption among most San Diego Padres' fans was that president of baseball operations AJ Preller and the front office would open up contract talks with one or both of Michael King and Dylan Cease. But after the New York Mets foolishly overpaid for Frankie Montas on Sunday night, any notion of such a deal went right out the door.

Both King and Cease proved their worth in 2024. King came to San Diego by way of the Juan Soto deal last winter, and Cease was traded to the Padres just before Opening Day. With Joe Musgrove's injury-riddled campaign and Yu Darvish's extended absence last summer, the duo of King and Cease became an indispensable 1-2 punch atop the Friars' starting rotation.

The two are heading into their final year of arbitration eligibility. This is typically the time of year when front office executives attempt to hammer out a contract extension with the player's impending free agency less than a year away. But after seeing the haul that Montas just received, the Padres' top two starters would be wise to test the free agent water next winter.

Padres' chances of extending Michael King & Dylan Cease went out the door with Mets' overpay

The Mets inked Montas to a two-year, $34 million contract with an opt out after the 2025 season. An average annual value (AAV) of $17 million for an injury-prone, middle-of-the-rotation starter whose best years are clearly behind him is asinine. But it will effectively set the market for a number of pitchers; those who are on the open market and others who could be in line for a contract extension.

Free agent hurlers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried — both of whom are miles better than Montas — are licking their chops after seeing the contract details. But those like King, Cease, and others who'll hit free agency after 2025, will undoubtedly play out the upcoming season with an eye toward an equally massive payday next offseason.

The Padres are already strapped for cash heading into this winter. San Diego dumped a ton of salary last offseason, and with so much money committed to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, the Padres won't have enough in their coffers to lock up King or Cease over the long haul, it would seem.

If neither King nor Cease signs a contract extension this offseason, it only heightens the Padres' need to win in 2025. Preller and Co. may need to increase their efforts to add to the roster this offseason, because it's looking more and more like King and Cease will be on the move after next winter.

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