Padres betting the market will bring their All-Star first baseman back

The San Diego Padres letting Luis Arraez walk out into free agency doesn’t automatically mean they’re out on their All-Star first baseman. In a lot of ways, it actually looks like they’re trying to let the market do the dirty work for them.

There have been mixed signals from the start. A.J. Preller has publicly kept the door open to a reunion, but parallel reporting has suggested the front office is prepared to let Arraez move on if the price isn’t right, especially with holes in the rotation and limited flexibility. That doesn’t scream indifference — it sounds more like a team that likes the player, just not at any cost.

Padres’ quiet gamble on Luis Arraez’s value could pay off in a big way

The projections say a lot about why San Diego is willing to take this approach. Spotrac pegs Arraez in that five-year, $70.5 million range, the kind of commitment that makes you nervous for a glove-first, power-light corner infielder. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, on the other hand, has him closer to two years and $17 million, which is far more palatable for a club juggling multiple big-money deals already on the books. That gap isn’t small; it’s the entire debate.

The Padres seem to be betting reality lands closer to the shorter, cheaper end of that spectrum. Arraez is still one of the best pure contact hitters on the planet, but front offices have never been more obsessed with defensive value, power, and baserunning. As Jeff Passan noted, teams tend to see “everything he isn’t” — impact glove, real thump, or a plus runner — and that matters when you start talking about nine-figure-ish guarantees.

That league-wide skepticism is exactly what the Padres are banking on. If the market cools and the bidding never reaches that five-year neighborhood, San Diego suddenly looks savvy for not rushing in early. They’d have the chance to circle back with a shorter-term, team-friendly offer that keeps their table-setter in the lineup without tying their hands elsewhere on the roster.

Could this plan backfire if a mystery team decides to pay for the batting title narrative? Absolutely. But for once, the Padres aren’t leading with emotion or urgency. They’re letting the rest of the league set the price — and hoping that when the dust settles, Arraez is still very much within reach.