Padres’ attempt to recreate Tigers pitching chaos may be impossible to sustain

The Padres are looking for a creative way to survive without a functional starting rotation. The problem with survival tactics is that they usually come with an expiration date. Their latest experiment worked on July 25. Randy Vásquez handled the first 2 2/3 innings against Miami before JP Sears supplied 3 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres won 7-2, giving them a second consecutive victory in which their starter was intentionally removed after only 37 pitches.

It looks smart when it works. It might even feel like the beginning of something. But we shouldn’t get carried away. The Friars executed the plan against a Marlins team in freefall having lost their last 11 games in a row. Their new pitching arrangement is about to face a much tougher opponent. Their schedule.

After Monday’s off day, The Padres will play 16 games in 16 days. If one opener implodes or one bulk arm cannot cover his assigned innings, the damage could spill into the following game, and perhaps the one after that.

Padres are borrowing the Tigers’ idea without Detroit’s greatest advantage

Manager Craig Stammen has acknowledged that the Padres examined how the 2024 Detroit Tigers turned “pitching chaos” into a surprising postseason run. They used openers, bulk relievers and favorable matchups to compensate for a rotation that had been stripped down to its frame. 

It makes sense for the Padres to study that model. But they don’t exactly have the same machinery. The Tigers had a guy named Tarik Skubal. He was the eventual AL Cy Young Award winner, capable of dominating a game and giving the rest of the pitching staff room to breathe. The Tigers also had durable, flexible arms navigating the innings around him.

The Padres have Michael King, who has been their clear rotation anchor. But as Dennis Lin reported in The Athletic, he’s the Padres only starter to complete six innings in a game since June 4.

Walker Buehler must remain on a traditional five-day schedule because of his injury history. Sears, Vásquez, Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez are being shuffled between opener and bulk-relief assignments. Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron are part of what essentially amounts to an 11-man bullpen.

That bullpen is not operating at full strength, either. Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam and David Morgan are all on the IL

So the Padres are trying to imitate one of baseball’s greatest recent high-wire acts with fewer dependable innings, several injured relievers and no Skubal-esque arm capable of stabilizing the operation.

The Padres’ pitching experiment leaves no margin for error

The appeal of San Diego’s plan is obvious. Stammen, Ruben Niebla and Ben Fritz can arrange matchups in advance, prevent struggling pitchers from seeing a lineup too many times and remove some of the guesswork. For a night, it could look brilliant. Over 16 straight games, it might get a little rough. 

Relievers will have to pitch more frequently than they’re accustomed to, even if their individual appearances are shorter. Bulk arms will need to provide predictable length. The offense will need to build enough cushions to keep Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon from appearing every time the Padres carry a narrow lead into the late innings.

Stammen identified the issue himself: “The ticket will be, can we keep our guys healthy doing it?”

The 2024 Tigers overcame microscopic playoff odds by winning 30 of their final 43 games. Their run was remarkable precisely because teams almost never pull off something like it. Detroit should be remembered as an exception, not treated like an instruction manual.

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