Padres ace's fate seems clear after insider's update all but kills extension hopes

Following a tremendous first year in a Padres uniform this past summer, San Diego fans want to see Dylan Cease with the organization long-term. He amassed his fourth-straight 200-plus strikeout season and helped the Friars finish as one of the best teams in the National League before they flamed out in the NLDS.

As you can imagine, there was hope among fans he could remain in Southern California for the foreseeable future with a possible contract extension.

This hopeful request can be put on pause, however. Padres insider AJ Cassavell gave some insight into Cease as part of a package of information regarding the future of San Diego's pitching staff. Keeping Cease beyond 2025 does not seem likely ... for now.

"Cease, a career frontline ace, seems unlikely to sign an extension this winter, considering the hefty paycheck presumably awaiting him next offseason," Cassavell wrote.

Padres Rumors: Dylan Cease unlikely to sign contract extension with SD

Cease will undoubtedly cost any team over $100 million when his time comes, and he could even approach $200 million with the right contract year. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove are all on the books for $100 million or more, with Machado and Tatis Jr. on $300 million deals.

This makes things quite difficult for the San Diego front office if they want to retain Cease. Could the 28-year-old right-hander negotiate for a pay cut if that includes postseason bonuses and almost a guarantee he will be on a winning team? It's nice to think this way, but Scott Boras clients typically go for the largest amount of guaranteed money.

It's unfortunate, but that is the nature of the beast. Cease gave the Friars a memorable 2024 campaign, spinning a no-hitter and toeing the rubber 33 times. Did he already give his best performance in a Padres jersey? Despite having one year remaining on his deal to keep him at Petco Park, it will be difficult to top what he did this past season.

Then again, he blew up twice in the playoffs, which created some concerns and at least had some fans thinking they could get Cease to sign at a discounted rate right now.

He will be a commodity once he enters free agency after the 2025 season regardless of his playoff numbers. And though a contract extension might be out of the question right now, it's definitely not the right move to trade him, regardless of what some talking heads might think.

The hope is the 2025 Padres go on a run and everything else falls into place. They only have to make a few roster adjustments this offseason so they don't need to put too much pressure on themselves.