75-1. When San Diego carried a lead through eight innings this season, the game was essentially over. That record should be sitting at the center of Craig Stammen’s Wild Card strategy against the Cubs. Basically just build any lead available, protect it aggressively and reach the part of the game the Padres pretty much always owns.
Stammen has to manage backward from that destination. We know that Mason Miller is likely waiting at the end and Adrián Morejón is his most dangerous setup weapon. The Padres have the arms to turn a five-inning start into a win.
Michael King earned the Game 1 start. He also should have the shortest leash of his season once the Cubs’ order turns over in a close game. Imagine San Diego leading 2-1 in the sixth with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Alex Bregman(if healthy) approaching for a third look.
Stammen should have Rodríguez or Morejón moving before trouble arrives. If King handles that pocket, perfect. If his command isn’t there, the Padres have the ability to attack that.
Waiting for a starter to “earn one more batter” is not how it works in a playoff atmosphere.
Craig Stammen must identify the game’s real ninth inning
The most important inning doesn’t always come last. Sometimes it arrives in the seventh when the top of the order comes back around.
Morejón doesn’t have to wait for a clean eighth inning. His job is to take down Chicago’s most dangerous rally, whenever it appears. Miller should be available for more than just three outs if the Cubs’ best hitters are due before the ninth.
Jason Adams and a returning Joe Musgrove gives Stammen another legitimate option, although their recent absences makes a defined role sensible.
The clean, traditional procession from starter to seventh-inning reliever to setup man to closer looks nice on a bullpen chart. But these situations rarely work out that clean.
The Padres cannot lose a Wild Card game with Morejón and Miller watching from beyond the outfield wall because their assigned innings never arrived. This creates the ultimate test for Stammen who’s managing his first ever postseason.
The good thing is the Padres reached this kind of scene 76 times during the regular season. 75 of those games became wins.
