Padres 2026 starting rotation gets wild makeover in bold MLB writer prediction

If you thought the San Diego Padres’ 2026 rotation picture was going to be simple: spend big, replace the names everyone knows and call it a day — one national prediction just threw a wrench into that idea. With Dylan Cease and Michael King both gone and Yu Darvish out for the year, it’s easy to assume San Diego will chase the next shiny frontline arm. Instead, one MLB writer sees a very different path: a rotation built more on creativity and reinvention than on star power and name value.

In a recent Bleacher Report exercise projecting all 30 teams’ starting rotations for 2026, Joel Reuter worked his way through the league and eventually landed on a Padres five that looks nothing like the one fans watched at the start of 2025. The top three names feel fairly logical. The last two? That’s where things get wild. Reuter’s projected group for San Diego features Luke Weaver and Jon Duplantier rounding out a rotation that also includes Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, and Randy Vásquez.

MLB writer’s 2026 Padres rotation prediction will stun fans expecting big names

On paper, the projected group lines up like this:

1. RHP Nick Pivetta
2. RHP Joe Musgrove
3. RHP Randy Vásquez
4. RHP Luke Weaver
5. RHP Jon Duplantier

The top half tells its own story about where the Padres are as an organization. But it’s the back end that really makes this prediction stand out. Weaver, who has rebuilt his value as a multi-inning weapon out of the Yankees’ bullpen, has already said he’s open to returning to a starting role. Betting on him as a full-time starter again would be very Padres-esque.

Then there’s Duplantier, the name that probably caused the biggest double-take. A former D-backs prospect who never quite stuck in the majors, he went to Japan and absolutely dominated in 2025, posting a 1.24 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 128 strikeouts in 101.1 innings.

Slotting Duplantier into the fifth spot isn’t just about romanticizing a foreign-league stat line — it’s about recognizing that the Padres may have to live in that value-shopping aisle if they want to stay competitive while the payroll tightens.

Of course, this projection also says something by what it leaves out. Internally, the Padres still have other options who could credibly compete for starts. Lefties JP Sears and Kyle Hart, along with righties Matt Waldron and Miguel Mendez. If anything, Reuter’s rotation reads less like a locked-in forecast and more like a road map for the type of creativity San Diego might lean into: short-term deals, conversion projects, and upside plays from unexpected places.

Is this the exact five-man group the Padres will roll out next Opening Day? Probably not. But the spirit of the prediction feels right for where this franchise is headed. San Diego won’t be able to outspend the Dodgers or Mets for every ace on the market. But what they can do is piece together a rotation with enough volatility and upside to be dangerous if a few of these bets hit.