Padres' 2025 outlook could go sideways in a hurry if Roki Sasaki signs elsewhere

With Corbin Burnes finding a new home, Roki Sasaki is now arguably the top free agent left. While he won't sign before the 2025 international free agent period starts on Jan. 15, he's been meeting with teams. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the San Diego Padres are one of the clubs that had a meeting with Sasaki.

For much of the offseason, the Padres have been considered among the favorites to land Sasaki, and it seems the organization could be viewing that as their high-leverage signing.

Sasaki is currently in Japan and weighing which team to sign with. While his agent, Joel Wolfe, grumbled about the treatment the Japanese media gave Sasaki at the Winter Meetings, their actions speak otherwise.

Following media update on Dec. 30, Andy Martino of SportsNet New York said Wolfe relayed that market size is not a factor in Sasaki's decision. That puts a damper on the Padres' perceived advantage in landing the right-hander next month.

As many as 20 teams have tried to secure a meeting with Sasaki and Wolfe, with only seven known teams to be successful. Teams other than the Padres include the New York Yankees, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and Texas Rangers. That's a solid mix of medium and big market clubs.

Roki Sasaki signing with another NL West team would be Padres' doomsday scenario

Since Sasaki is only 23 years old, he is subject to Major League Baseball's amateur bonus pools. The Padres have a total bonus pool of $6.261 million but it would be a small price to pay to land the right-hander's services. He would be under team control for the next six seasons, giving San Diego a high-octane arm to anchor their rotation for the foreseeable future.

With the upside that Sasaki could bring to the Padres, the same can be true as for why the Dodgers and Giants would also be interested. If he signs with either of their NL West rivals, it could become the doomsday scenario for San Diego. Not only would they have failed to fortify their rotation but they'll see a team they're competing against in the division make that move. That could start a domino effect that leads to them looking more towards the future.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers have already made significant additions to their rotations this offseason, putting pressure on the Padres to keep up to stay in the postseason race. If they're unable to land Sasaki, then the next logical move will be for president of baseball operations AJ Preller to find a way to add more pitching depth in trades. Dylan Cease and Luis Arráez could be put on the market as the Padres try to lower their salary while targeting major league ready pitching prospects to build their depth.

Trading Cease would hurt a starting rotation that's missing a lot of depth. They've traded much of their starting pitching depth to land Cease and Tanner Scott in separate trades. While they added a couple of starting pitching prospects to their 40-man roster in November, none are close to major league ready. That's why it is imperative for Preller to be able to secure at least a major league ready starting pitcher prospect in a potential Cease deal.

While they have Yu Darvish, Michael King, Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez, there's no clear fifth starter on the roster. They may need to convert relievers on the roster such as Bryan Hoeing, Adrian Morejon, and Stephen Kolek to build their internal depth. All three pitchers were starters in the minor leagues, so it's not completely uncharted territory, but it's not an easy road ahead. King serves as their most recent success, although the conversion process started in his final year with the Yankees.

Sasaki has become more and more important for the Pads as they remain inactive. And that's why things could get ugly if he doesn't land in San Diego.