MLB’s biggest surprise list exposes the Padres’ most embarrassing problem

We're coming up on the halfway point on the 2026 season, and to celebrate, MLB.com released its annual list of the biggest surprises on each team.

Most of the list features feel-good stories or breakout candidates finally having their moment in the spotlight. For instance, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, despite being buried in the NL West standings, got shout-outs for the performances of Casey Schmitt and Troy Johnston, respectively.

Courtesy of insider AJ Cassavell, however, the San Diego Padres were instead slammed for their lack of superstar production. Given how the last month and change has gone, that's not an unfair reading of the team's current situation.

The risk, of course, was always there. Everyone knew that signing so many players to such long-term, expensive deals would eventually backfire. It's just shocking how quickly the fall-off has happened.

Padres' star trio is the reason for mediocrity, but also the path back to contention

The Friars' offense, as a whole, has been disastrous. We've waxed poetic about it in myriad articles around these parts, but know that entering the back-half of June, the team ranks last in runs scored, last in batting average, and last in wRC+. Yikes.

Cassavell pointed to three players in particular -- Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill -- who shoulder the brunt of the blame given their sizable contracts and superstar status. It's hard to disagree with that assessment when looking at the numbers.

Machado, despite some promising new Statcast data, is the chief of the underperformers this year. His 72 wRC+ is the 13th-lowest in all of baseball, and his .177 batting average is barely ahead of the current last-place hitters (Dansby Swanson and Evan Carter). The 33-year-old has managed to muscle out 12 homers this year, but his .181 isolated slugging (ISO) is his lowest mark since 2014.

Meanwhile, Merrill doesn't have the same excuse of age, as he ranks just two spots ahead of Machado on the wRC+ leaderboards. He's striking out more than ever, and despite playing great defense and running the bases well, his bat has been so poor that he's basically been a replacement-level player (0.4 fWAR).

Tatis' situation is the most frustrating, as he's retained elite batted-ball data despite an average showing at the plate this year (.691 OPS, 100 wRC+). His lack of slugging has been well-documented, but he's also whiffing and chasing like his younger, less mature self as well.

No matter what kind of production the Padres can get out of Samad Taylor, Ty France, or Gavin Sheets, they won't be able to survive if their star triumvirate keeps flaming out in this manner. More than any trade target, San Diego's best chance of competing for a title will require better play from those already in house.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow