Padres offensive collapse is making the first staff casualty obvious

You know things are bleak when Gavin Sheets is your most likely hitter to make the All-Star Game. That's not a dig at Sheets, who is in the midst of his best season since a rookie cup of coffee in 2021; rather, it's an acknowledgement of just how bad the rest of the San Diego Padres' high-priced lineup has been.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (98 wRC+), Jackson Merrill (72), and Manny Machado (68) have all been below-average hitters, which is plainly unacceptable given their contracts and organizational standing. Freddy Fermin (49) has also been terrible at the plate, while Jake Cronenworth (47) was even worse prior to his injury.

The only semi-regular that has been productive besides Sheets is Ty France, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of the 2026 Padres. This team simply can't hit to save their own skin right now.

Which makes one wonder: How much leeway does first-year hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. really have?

Steven Souza Jr. should be on the hot seat following Padres' anemic offensive start

Souza began the campaign by proclaiming that he'd bring the "Slam" back to "Slam Diego." Thus far, the team has managed one of those elusive four-run homers through their first 67 games, and they haven't had much luck elsewhere in the scoring department either.

By runs scored, the Friars' offense is actually the worst in baseball at 250, which is backed up by a last-place ranking in OPS (.648) and wRC+ (85). The team also has the lowest slugging percentage (.357) and has gotten the third-fewest cumulative fWAR from their position players (4.5).

At some point, someone has to take the blame for this. It'd be one thing if the Padres were a rebuilding squad with a bunch of over-the-hill veterans and pre-arb players. It's another when you consider this is one of the most expensive rosters in baseball that entered the season with World Series expectations.

Souza told the San Diego Union-Tribune that his offensive philosophy revolves around line drives and a patient plate approach. The team currently ranks 26th in line-drive rate (18.4%) and 20th in walk rate (8.9%). He's clearly not getting through to the players, which probably isn't surprising when he's a first-year coach trying to advise a roster full of stars.

Like his lineup, manager Craig Stammen shouldn't have much patience for this performance. The Padres can't afford to keep scoring at a league-worst rate. Barring a dramatic turnaround, Souza may not be long for San Diego.

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