Manny Machado’s 2026 projection is boring — and that’s perfect for the Padres

San Diego Padres fans looking for a loud, dramatic Manny Machado outlook — a sudden decline warning, probably won’t find it in the early 2026 projection models. What they will find is the most comforting thing a star can be in a chaotic roster-building era: predictable.

The early 2026 line floating around for Machado is basically “more of the same,” and that’s not an insult. The Steamer projection has him at 135 games, 595 plate appearances, 26 homers, a .268/.329/.465 slash, a 122 wRC+, and 3.3 WAR. Nothing there screams reinvention. Nothing screams collapse. It reads like a dependable middle-of-the-order engine doing exactly what the Padres need him to do.

Manny Machado’s 2026 projection hints at the Padres’ best-case scenario

And that’s the key: the Padres don’t need Machado to turn into some new version of himself. They need him to keep being the stabilizer while the rest of the roster inevitably swings between “work in progress” and “please let this click.”

What makes the “boring” projection even more believable is that it’s not asking Machado to do anything he didn’t just do. In 2025, he played 159 games and hit 27 home runs with 95 RBIs, slashing .275/.335/.460. It’s just the latest chapter in the Machado-as-metronome experience, where the production shows up, the plate discipline stays sane (Steamer has him at a 8.1 percent walk rate and 19.5 percent strikeout rate), and the lineup has an adult in the room every night. 

The only part of this that may make you raise your eyebrow is the 135 games in games. The drop from 159 games is less than many of the other systems we’ve seen (FanGraphs' depth charts are projecting him to play around 150+ games). However, this may not be as big of a concern. This could simply be the numbers realizing his age and amount of wear & tear and that he may need more rest days.

For San Diego, a “boring” Machado projection is perfect because it’s one less thing to worry about. The Padres can chase upside elsewhere while trusting that their third baseman is still going to give them steady power, solid on-base production, and that familiar “fine, I’ll carry us for a week” stretch when the lineup gets choppy.

Boring isn’t bad. For the Padres, boring Machado is the foundation.