Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s projected deal gives Padres six years of risk with one expensive catch

The most important part of Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s projected contract arrives after his second season. That’s when he could decide he deserves a better deal and leave the Padres holding an empty spot at second base. If he struggles, the Padres could be on the hook for another four years.

That’s the catch in Jim Bowden’s prediction for The Athletic: six years, $128 million, with an opt-out after Year 2. Bowden lists the Padres among Chisholm’s best fits. It’s a reasonable baseball match, and though the contract structure fits what the Padres would actually do, we should approach it with considerably less enthusiasm.

Chisholm would get time to rebuild his market with the comfort of a long-term guarantee. The Padres would need his bat to improve enough to justify the investment, knowing that improvement could send him straight back into free agency. Eh, we can like Jazz, but we’d love to see better terms in this situation.

The Padres would be paying for an offensive rebound

There’s an appealing version of this proposal. Chisholm brings power from the left side of the plate and speed that can pressure a defense. He would also increase the Padres value at the keystone. San Diego could use all of that.

Bowden’s review of his 2026 season doubles down on the attraction. Chisholm hit 19 home runs and stole 41 bases, finishing in the 96th percentile in baserunning value and the 85th percentile in defensive run value.

He can influence a game through more than his swing. Over a long season, that’s big. But the hitting is where a $128 million commitment gets uncomfortable. He finished the season with a .231 average and placed 23rd percentile in batting run value. The average alone doesn’t settle the argument. The broader offensive assessment gives the Padres a substantial problem to solve.

Before committing six years, San Diego would need a convincing explanation for how Chisholm produces more at the plate.

Signing him would also mean settling second base around him and adjusting the rest of the infield accordingly. With all of the Padres needs this offseason, settling part of the organization around a rebound would be an expensive risk. 

Chisholm’s opt-out would give San Diego an uneven bargain

Two productive seasons would have real value. If Chisholm helped the Padres win in October and then opted out, perhaps we could live with that kind of outcome.

The trouble is the protection San Diego would give him if those seasons went poorly. Under Bowden’s proposed structure, Chisholm could test the market again if his production earned a raise. If his bat continued to disappoint, the remaining commitment would stay with the Padres.

Chisholm is an interesting fit. At these projected terms, he would also be a substantial bet on the Padres’ ability to improve his hitting. We should expect the club to have a better answer than hoping the exciting parts eventually outweigh the expensive ones.

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