Diamondbacks’ latest $40M rotation move turns up the heat on the Padres

As far as the National League West goes, the Arizona Diamondbacks may just be the divisional X-factor.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a lock to represent the division in the postseason, and the San Diego Padres are likely in the same echelon so long as they can field a competitive rotation next year (which, at the moment, is not a guarantee).

Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies have a failed NFL executive running their franchise. They'll be also-rans until the end of time (or until they can convince a pitcher to sign up for mile-high altitude).

The San Francisco Giants are an interesting case, but with a college baseball coach heading into his rookie season in the big leagues serving as their manager, it's hard to say if they can climb back over the .500 hump in 2026.

That leaves the D-Backs, who were in the World Series just two years ago but have missed the playoffs in back-to-back years since. They have an elite offense and a shoddy rotation that's awaiting Corbin Burnes' return from elbow surgery, but they're also debating trading perennial MVP candidate Ketel Marte.

And yet, they continue to make win-now moves in free agency, shoring up their rotation by signing Michael Soroka (one-year deal) and Merrill Kelly (two years).

Those moves basically locked in an irrefutable fact: the Padres' rotation is among the worst in the National League.

Padres have second-worst rotation in NL West after Diamondbacks sign Merrill Kelly

Thanks to the mere existence of the Rockies, the Padres will never have the worst rotation in the division. Still, that they are being mentioned in the same breath as their Colorado counterparts rather than the Dodgers is frustrating.

Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta simply aren't enough to compete with the top dogs of the Senior Circuit. The Padres don't need to match the talent of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and more, but having a reliable third starter would be nice.

That could prove to be difficult to come by, though, as more and more top options come off the market. Kelly was a perfect example of someone who fits the Padres' mid-rotation needs and budget; assuming they can't afford someone like Framber Valdez or Tarik Skubal, they need to play in that end of the market.

There are still plenty of pitchers who fit that profile (Zac Gallen, Tyler Mahle, Zack Littell, etc.), but the market is shrinking. And if guys like Kelly are getting $20 million per year, the Padres may find themselves priced out of future negotiations once the supply starts to dwindle further.

A.J. Preller is surely trying, but it's becoming more and more difficult to imagine San Diego solving all their rotation woes in one winter.