Can Padres fans rely on Dylan Cease with one month left in NL West race?

With the San Diego Padres locked into a race with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West, Dylan Cease has an opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of Padres fans. If Cease, once considered a top pitcher across the MLB, can give San Diego solid outings down the stretch, he can help the Padres win the division. In doing so, he'd win over the fanbase quickly.

Can he be trusted to deliver? It's complicated.

So far this season, Cease has a 4.82 ERA and 0.6 bWAR. It's a far cry from the 2.20 ERA and 6.4 bWAR season he posted in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox.

Padres' Dylan Cease hasn't been his typical self in 2025, but the team needs him to be

Cease's season got off to an awful start. He allowed nine runs against the Athletics on April 8, just his third start of the season, which ballooned his ERA to 7.98.

Since that game, Cease has been fine. He hasn't been an ace, but he holds a 4.45 ERA, and a 3.84 FIP in his last 24 starts. While his record is 5-10, the Padres' record is 13-11 over his last 24 starts, so something has to give there. Essentially, they've won almost all of his no-decisions, as he's been able to keep them in games reliably.

When we zoom in a little more, however, we can find that Cease might have already had his best streak of starts this season. From April 14th through June 10th, he posted a 3.39 ERA and struck out 78 batters in 61 innings.

Since June 10, he's been back on the struggle bus. In his last 13 starts, Cease has a 5.43 ERA and 4.39 FIP. It gets even worse when looking at his most recent outings. In his last three starts, since August 16th, Cease has a 7.82 ERA, with 11 earned runs in 12.2 innings.

The bottom line is that Cease has to be better. As long as he keeps San Diego in the game, they'll win. He's 6-11 on the season, but in his 10 no-decisions, the Padres are 9-1. The Padres don't need Cease to be elite; they just need him to not lose them the game by the fifth inning.

One good sign for Cease is that he is still striking out batters at an elite rate. He has 183 strikeouts in 142 innings, and is on pace for his fifth straight 200-strikeout season. It's also good to see that his FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, at 3.72. That indicates Cease has been dealing with some bad luck this season.

The bad news? He's allowing more home runs than any other year in his career, and he's leading the league in walks for the third time in his career. Batters are reaching base against him at a .316 clip, and slugging .406 against him.

It will take a massive turnaround for Cease if he is going to pull it together in the final month of the season. That does not mean he can't turn things around and be an impactful player for the Padres down the stretch. But Padres fans might want to say their prayers that Cease can be the difference maker in the rotation, just in case he needs them.