A once franchise cornerstone, now a growing concern in San Diego

When the San Diego Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal ahead of the 2023 season, it was a move that screamed ambition. Another splash in a wave of expensive swings under A.J. Preller, and Bogaerts — Coming off a 5.7 WAR season in Boston — was expected to be a cornerstone in the Padres’ championship blueprint.

Fast-forward to 2025, and the picture looks very different. Through mid-June, Bogaerts is still struggling to produce. Though he just racked up a multi-hit game in the Padres latest series, he still owns a .240/.323/.323 slash line. His OPS is well under .700. However his hard hit percentage and walk rate are rising, but so is his strikeout rate.

What’s really going on with Xander Bogaerts?

There’s no doubt injuries have played a role. Bogaerts entered the season already dealing with shoulder discomfort. But even beyond his fair share of  injuries, signs of regression are popping up in the data. His barrel rate is down sharply, and he's swinging through more pitches in the zone than ever before.

This is simply not the version of Bogaerts the Padres thought they were getting. When San Diego signed Bogaerts, they already had several infielders on the roster — Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatís Jr., and Jake Cronenworth (converted). That led to Bogaerts shifting to second base, a position he hadn’t played regularly since the minors. 

The optics of the deal now look especially shaky. Bogaerts turns 33 this fall. He’s due nearly $25 million annually through 2033. And he’s currently profiling as a below-average bat with little pop.

Do the Padres continue to give him everyday reps out of deference to the contract? Or does he become an expensive utility piece in a roster that’s already bloated with long-term deals?

There’s no doubt that Bogaerts is still a clubhouse leader. He still brings championship experience. But this version of him is no longer untouchable in the lineup. As the Padres push for a postseason berth, they need production — not just pedigree.