A.J. Preller’s two-word answer makes four starters sound like a modest offseason for the Padres

Three starters? Four? “Keep going,” A.J. Preller said at the GM Meetings, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported. It’s funny, until we write down the Padres’ 2027 rotation. We have Randy Vásquez and… Joe Musgrove in pencil? Not exactly sure the guy who just made it back from Tommy John surgery in the knick of time in October will be ready to become a full-time starter again (issues with recovery) by Opening Day 2027. Let’s try filling out the rest without writing in somebody who’s already a free agent.

Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Casey Mize and Robbie Ray are all free agents now. Yu Darvish’s future is uncertain. The Padres have one returning pitcher who handled a meaningful regular-season workload for them in 2026, another we’d love to see back on the mound in the starting rotation and JP Sears.

The Padres should be shopping for innings as much as names

Vásquez made 23 starts and threw 140 2/3 innings across 32 appearances last season. We can give him credit for that. A 3.90 ERA over that much work has value, especially for a team staring at this many vacancies. There is legit reason to feel good about him in the back of the rotation. The trouble starts when his workload is the most bankable thing on the pitching staff.

King and Buehler made 32 starts apiece. King gave the Padres 185 innings with a 3.21 ERA. Buehler gave them 153 2/3 with a 4.63 ERA. There’s a big difference between what the two provided the Friars. But there’s also a reason to care about the 32 starts Buehler made. Between the two of them, the Padres had someone take the ball 64 times which is nearly 40 percent of the schedule walking into free agency in two pairs of cleats.

Here’s how we’d build the Opening Day five. Start with a frontline acquisition, whether that’s a King reunion or a splashier move for Tarik Skubal. Regardless, a starting ace is a must. Add two starters with recent track records of taking regular turns. Maybe that means Dustin May and Shota Imanaga. Then you can put Vásquez in the spot behind them and let Musgrove compete for the fifth spot, with a fourth addition capable of taking it if he needs more time. San Diego could come out of that winter with four new starters and have every one of them pitching in the first week.

Say Vásquez makes 25 starts and three newcomers make 30 each. That would be a pretty good outcome. It would also leave 47 games for Musgrove, the fourth addition and whoever comes up behind them. Even if Musgrove and the fourth addition cover 30 between them, the Padres still need 17 starts from somewhere.

That’s where Sears fits. We’d have him taking regular turns at Triple-A and make him the first call when Craig Stammen needs a starter. There’s real value in having someone stretched out who can come up and give you a few innings.

The next question for Preller is who gets the call when Sears is already in San Diego. A veteran on a minor-league deal or a trade for an optionable starter would give the Padres another pitcher they can keep stretched out.

Skubal would make the Padres better immediately. Landing him would make us expect a busy winter to get even busier. If we’re Skubal, we’re asking Preller who’s pitching the other four days and what ownership is prepared to spend to get this team deep into October. A record-setting offer would get his attention. A roster built to win now would give him a reason to take it.

Four starters sounds like a haul in November. In San Diego, it might buy the Padres an Opening Day rotation. Sears gives them a plan for the first turn somebody misses. Over 162 games, we’d want to know who gets the call when Sears is already here.

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