3 things holding the Padres back from being true contenders in 2025

The San Diego Padres may have started the season hot, but after their latest stretch of 2-7 baseball, they are falling further and further behind in the NL West. Two weeks ago, the Friars were right with the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West. Now, they are five games back of Los Angeles and three-and-a-half back of San Francisco.

The Padres' flaws are being exposed, and it is becoming clear what is holding this team back from true contention in 2025.

1. Their stars are not playing like stars

San Diego is not a team built to win with their depth. AJ Preller's entire strategy has been to make big trades for big-name players, often sacrificing depth in the hopes that the stars in San Diego could carry the Friars to victory.

So far, that has not been happening. Fernando Tatís Jr. has been good, currently eighth in the MLB with 3.4 bWAR. Manny Machado has been solid as well, with a team-leading .873 OPS and 2.7 bWAR, 31st in baseball. The rest of the Padres' stars have struggled in 2025.

Xander Bogaerts - entering Thursday - was hitting for a career-low .227 batting average and a career-low .314 slugging percentage. If the Padres were disappointed in the shortstops' .688 OPS a year ago, they are certainly not impressed with his career-worst mark of .617 in 2025. His defense is barely keeping him alive at 0.3 bWAR, but Bogaerts has been as bad offensively as the Padres could have imagined in 2025.

Then there is former hits machine Luis Arraez. Arraez came to San Diego last season with one job to do - get on base. The three-time batting champ did that, hitting .318 with the Padres and reaching base at a .346 clip.

The problem for Arraez is that he does not hit for power or walk at a particularly high rate. If he is not hitting for a high batting average, he is essentially worthless. So far in 2025, he is hitting a career low .283, with a career low .315 on base percentage and a career low .712 OPS. The first baseman has been a replacement-level player, with exactly 0.0 bWAR in 2025.

Jackson Merrill has been better than the aforementioned players, but even he has underperformed in 2025. Perhaps it is unfair to expect the 22-year-old to improve on last year's performance, in which the centerfielder finished ninth in NL MVP voting and was worth 4.4 bWAR. Still, Merrill's second season in San Diego has not been as strong. So far, he has been worth 1.1 bWAR. Instead of being a 20-20 threat, Merrill seems to have lost both power and speed. He's hit just five home runs so far and has stolen just one base. Last year, Merrill hit 24 bombs and stole 16.

Finally, there is Dylan Cease, whom the Padres traded for to be their ace. So far this year, he has tossed 80.2 innings of 4.69 ERA ball. With a record of 2-6, Cease has hardly pitched like the star the Padres need him to be.

2. They just aren't hitting for enough power

The problem just keeps getting worse for San Diego. They rank 27th in baseball with 62 home runs, only better than the White Sox, Royals and Pirates. San Diego is also just 22nd in doubles, and as a team, their .377 slugging percentage ranks 23rd in baseball.

However, the problem has gotten worse over time. In April, San Diego ranked 16th in slugging at .384. In May, they were 24th at .377. So far in June, the team is 26th in slugging at just .355. Even their productive players have struggled to get the ball over the fences in 2025. Machado has hit 11 home runs, while Tatís leads the team with 13. Jake Cronenworth has only five longballs to his name, and Bogaerts has hit just three.

3. The bullpen is losing it's clutch gene

While the bullpen has been far from the Padres' biggest problem in 2025, it has caused some issues. For one, Robert Suarez has not looked like his dominant self from 2024. While he does lead the league with 21 saves, Suarez has been worth just 0.6 bWAR this season. His ERA is up to 3.48, and with a record of 1-3, he has contributed to multiple losses for the Padres.

Overall, the pen has blown nine saves. Suarez has blown two, Jeremiah Estrada has blown three, Adrian Morejon has blown two and Jason Adam and Wandy Peralta have blown one each.

San Diego needs its pen to win close, low-scoring games, and so far, they have not delivered enough to save the offense.