Padres have a 92.8% chance of making the postseason

(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

To say the San Diego Padres aren’t a familiar face when it comes to October baseball is putting things rather mildly.

Prior to last fall, the team’s most recent trip to the postseason came back in 2006. Just how long ago was that? Twitter was launched that year and Barry Bonds blasted his 715th career home run to become baseball’s all-time home run king. In other words, it’s been a hot second.

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But the Padres are ready to put all that in the past. After advancing to the NLDS last fall, San Diego has its eyes on the prize this time around. After an incredible offseason dripping with moves mostly centered around building an elite pitching staff, Fangraphs is feeling pretty optimistic about the Friars’ odds of playing postseason baseball again this fall.

Padres are still looking up at the Dodgers

The preseason projections give San Diego a 92.8 percent chance of reaching the postseason – the second-best odds in all of Major League Baseball. Of course, as has been the case so many times of late, there’s just one problem: the only team with better odds? The reigning World Series champion Dodgers – who have bested the Padres several times lately in rankings of star duos and pitching staffs. 

Fangraphs is pretty darned clear about one thing: it’s a two-horse race in the NL West. The projected third-place Giants have just a seven percent chance of advancing past the regular season. As for Arizona and Colorado? Well, frankly, they’re not even worth delving into.

In terms of World Series odds, the Padres have an 11.8 percent chance – the third-highest in baseball, trailing the favorite Dodgers (20.2 percent) and Yankees (18.4). Personally, I think Fangraphs might be a bit bullish on New York because while, yes, they might be a very good team, there’s certainly a fair number of questions surrounding them, as well.

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Meanwhile, San Diego has done just about everything humanly possible to insulate themselves from the effect of injuries and the likes. Pitching depth on levels you rarely see these days will set up some big-time roster decisions as spring training kicks off and everyone is ready to see if the offense can repeat its powerful showing from last year.