3 free agents San Diego Padres should target in 2021 offseason

Looking ahead to the 2020-2021 offseason we look at three free agents the San Diego Padres should be targeting.

With the last big free agent name in the 2019-2020 class coming off the board with Nicholas Castellanos going to the Cincinnati Reds, we look at who the San Diego Padres could target next offseason.

We went into this offseason thinking San Diego might take a chance and spend big on some of the top free agents like Stephen Strasburg, but that really never came close to happening.

In fact, the only big free agent signing the Padres made this offsesaon was signing reliever Drew Pomeranz.

Part of that is because the Padres were very aggressive the past two offseason signing Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado.

Those two account for $53 million of the team’s payroll for the next three seasons. And their 2020 payroll is already around $140 million.

They don’t have a lot coming off the books after the 2020 season either. They’ll have Garrett Richards, Kirby Yates, and Jurickson Profar become free agents and those three will make a combined $21 million in 2020.

Of course, they’re hoping they can move Wil Myers and some of the $68.5 million (including $1 million buyout in 2023) he’s owed over the next three years.

Including arbitration numbers, San Diego’s 2021 payroll is likely already around $120-130 million.

That doesn’t give them much room to work with, but we know things can be done to open up room if they feel like one of the top free agents next offseason is worth the investment.

Let’s look at three that very well could be worth going after next offseason.

Mookie Betts

If the Padres aren’t able to work out a trade for Mookie Betts this season, then perhaps they try to go after him next offseason during free agency.

The 2018 MVP is set to hit free agency at the prime age of 28 and will no doubt be looking for a massive payday.

But he’s exactly what San Diego needs at the top of their lineup. A center fielder with speed and power.

In 2015, Mookie’s first full season, he hit .291/.341 with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases with an OPS of .820.

The following season was his first of four straight All-Star seasons. He hit .318/.363 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, and 26 stolen bases to go along with an OPS of .897.

In 2017 he hit just .264 but still had a solid .344 OBP and .803 OPS with 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases.

During his MVP season in 2018 he hit .346/.438 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases to go along with a 1.078 OPS in 136 games.

Last year he hit .295/.391 with 29 home runs, 16 stolen bases and an OPS of .915.

At this point you know what you’re going to get with Mookie. He’s going to hit around .290 with close to 30 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an OPS around .900.

Taking out his MVP season when he posted a WAR of 10.4, he’s averaged a WAR of 6.25 from 2015 to 2019, according to FanGraphs.

He’s likely going to get a contract similar to the one Manny Machado got (10 years and $300 million). I really doubt the Padres can afford another contract like that, but wouldn’t it be fun?

George Springer

If the Padres didn’t feel like they could spend for Betts, then George Springer would be a very nice second option to find an elite center fielder who can hit for power.

Springer will be 31 when he becomes a free agent next offseason, so he shouldn’t be nearly as expensive in terms of years and dollars as Betts.

He didn’t break into the league until he was 24 years old and he really didn’t put himself on the map until 2016 when he hit .261/.359 with 39 home runs and an OPS of .815.

In 2017 he made his first All-Star appearance hitting .283/.367 that season with 34 home runs, 112 runs scored, and a .889 OPS.

Two years ago he hit .265/.346 with 22 home runs, 102 runs scored, and a .780 OPS.

But this past season he hit .292/.383 with 39 home runs, 96 runs scored, 96 RBI, and an OPS of .974.

He’s averaged 4.6 WAR over the past five seasons.

I was surprised to see that Springer is not a very good base stealer with his speed. He hasn’t recorded double-digit steals in a season since 2015 when he swiped 16 bases.

Springer has split time between center and right field and has been a plus defender at both positions. He had 6 DRS in center in 540.1 innings in 2019 and 5 DRS in 374.2 innings in right last year, according to FanGraphs.

With Springer entering his age 31 season in 2021, you’d have to be careful giving him a long term deal, especially if you’re considering him as your center fielder.

Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a four or five-year deal for around $25 million a year.

You also don’t know how teams are going to view him because of recent injury struggles and his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

Perhaps that drives the price down even more for the Padres to be serious contenders for him.

Trevor Bauer

The starting pitching market next offseason is not that great, especially compared to this past offseason we just went through with Strasburg and Gerrit Cole.

But Trevor Bauer is likely to be at the top of that list going into next offseason as he’ll be just 29 years old (but will be 30 before the start of the 2021 season).

It took Bauer a while to become a top of the rotation starting pitcher as he hovered around a 4.20 ERA from 2014-2017 with the Cleveland Indians.

He took his game to another level in 2018 when he posted a 2.21 ERA in 175.1 innings with 221 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.09.

This past season he had a 3.79 ERA in 24 starts with the Indians punching out 185 batters in 156.2 innings.

But he really struggled after being traded to the Reds with a 6.39 ERA in 56.1 innings with 68 strikeouts.

For his career he has an ERA of 4.04 in 1,117 innings with 1,179 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.30.

How he bounces back in 2020 will go a long way in determining just how much he’ll make next offseason.

If he looks anything like the pitcher he was in 2018 then he probably gets a six-year deal for around $25 million a year.

But if he struggles again, he could potentially take a one-year deal to try and reset his market value.