Why the San Diego Padres offense is struggling

Does their run differential upset you? Or that they can’t score consistently? Here’s why the San Diego Padres offense has been less than stellar this season.

Compared to the last eight seasons, this San Diego Padres offense is the most exciting one to watch by a long shot.

That said, it won’t be enough to spring the Friars into a playoff spot, at least not at its current rate. Their method of manufacturing runs is unsustainable, inconsistent, and downright frustrating. There’s a reason why they’re ranked in the bottom ten in the league for most offensive categories.

That’s right. The Padres are ranked 24th in runs scored, 20th in run differential, 27th in total hits, 24th in RBIs, 26th in batting average, and 24th in on-base percentage. I guess that’s not very surprising considering their record.

They are, however, ranked 11th in home runs and 17th in slugging percentage. So what gives?

In this post, we’ll attempt to take a deeper dive into why the Padres can’t seem to produce, especially when it’s most important. Of course there are many reasons beyond the ones we discuss here, including management, defense, and downright bad luck that can lead to an unproductive offense. We try to tackle the ones that are most apparent though.

As with several of these analytical articles, this one will be somewhat statistically-heavy. Feel free to check out FanGraphs and Baseball-reference for detailed explanations on certain statistics and how they’re calculated.

Let’s commence!

Home run happy

Home runs are one of the most exciting plays in baseball. The more the merrier.

That said, relying too heavily on homers to score runs is unsustainable long-term, and the San Diego Padres offense is proving that right now.

Of the 475 runs scored this season, 55.2% of those is thanks to the home run. That’s calculated with the following formula: (Runs scored off of balls not in play) / (Total runs scored).

Scoring runs via homers isn’t inherently bad — when you look at the top five teams in the league in runs scored, you get the following:

1. Boston Red Sox: 640 total runs scored, 45% via home run
2. New York Yankees: 619, 52.2%
3. Minnesota Twins: 617 runs, 54.3%
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: 603 runs, 52.7%
5. Atlanta Braves: 589 runs, 49.7%

So, what’s the problem with home runs? Nothing. The problem lies in runs scored from balls in play. Clearly, the Padres offense is swinging for the fences, not for base hits. They rank 19th in the league with a .294 BAbip.

Simply put, the Padres are hitting dingers and dingers only. Their home run numbers are on par with the the top five scoring teams, but their number of runs from balls in play is severely lower:

1. Boston Red Sox: 354 runs scored via balls in play
2. New York Yankees: 296
3. Minnesota Twins: 282
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: 285
5. Atlanta Braves: 296
6. San Diego Padres: 213

Obviously, the Friars are going to have less runs scored than the top five teams considering they’re 50-58. The issue is that their ratio of runs scored via balls in play vs. not in play is much worse than better teams.

Ultimately, I believe this problem arises from the Padres inability to get people on base, whether via walks or runs. The Padres rank 24th in the league in OBP while the middle and bottom of the lineup is inconsistent and unreliable. A few players try to carry the team, and since others can’t drive them in if they get on base, they feel the need to hit dingers and score runs themselves.

Which brings us directly to our next point.

Top-heavy lineup

The San Diego Padres offense is powered by a few fantastic hitters and dragged down by several sub-par players.

The heavy hitters are obvious — Eric Hosmer is slashing .282/.333/.442 while Manny Machado is hitting .277/.347/.511.

Fernando Tatis Jr. boasts a stat line of .329/.391/.601 and will probably take over the Padres leaderboard after another month of plate appearances.

The drop off after that is pretty steep.

For those with more than 300 plate appearances, Franmil Reyes was next in line with a .255/.314/.536 slash line. He was also responsible for 16.5% of the team’s home runs, tied for 10th in the MLB with 27 long balls.

Surprisingly, Reyes also led the team in xBA with .273; unsurprisingly, he also led the team with an xwOBA of .374. While his production curbed a bit after the All-Star break, he was a big contributor all season long. As everyone now knows, Reyes was traded to the Cleveland Indians so he’s no longer contributing to the Padres offense.

If we lower the number of plate appearances to 250, Manuel Margot would have the next best line of .246/.321/.385, and that looks like a decent fall from Machado. Overall, Greg Garcia is the best of the rest with a .264 BA, but as a utility player he’s only had 223 plate appearances.

He also has a .329 wOBA, which is 4th best on the team behind Tatis Jr., Machado, and Hunter Renfroe, coupled with a 2.04 K/BB ratio. One has to wonder why he doesn’t start more.

Look, Tatis, Machado, and Hosmer are at the top of the lineup for a reason — put your best players first so they can get more at-bats. However, the rest of the lineup needs to produce if the Padres want get out of this offensive slump. Moving Hosmer to the five-hole might be good for his confidence as well as getting a higher-percentage hitter further down the lineup.

There’s also hope that players like Luis Urías and Wil Myers will pick themselves up and contribute more to getting on base, which could help the heavy hitters drive in more runs consistently.

Finally, it’s the fact the Padres can’t come up big with runners in scoring position, in high-leverage instances, or other clutch situations that brings us to our last point.