San Diego Padres: The Pros And Cons Of Signing Dallas Keuchel

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BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 29: Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles during Game Two of a doubleheader at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 29, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

The San Diego Padres have an interest in Dallas Keuchel. Should they pursue this option?

The San Diego Padres left Las Vegas without any new additions to their roster, but they did leave with a strong desire to acquire a third baseman and starting pitching for a roster largely void of both positions. So naturally, they signed second baseman Ian Kinsler to a two-year deal on Friday afternoon. The latest rumor out of San Diego is that the team is interested in free agent left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel.

Confirmed by Dennis Lin Friday evening, the San Diego Padres are closely monitoring the market for the soon-to-be 31-year-old starting pitcher. The signing of Patrick Corbin by the Washington Nationals and Nathan Eovaldi by the Boston Red Sox leaves Keuchel as the top remaining starter on the market this offseason and as Lin points out, Keuchel is expecting to be paid like it.

Starting a career-high 34 games last season with Houston, Keuchel had a solid season, nothing spectacular that stood out, but another solid season in a Houston Astros uniform. He did end the year by taking home a Gold Glove Award, his fourth time winning the award in seven big league seasons. He is no longer the 2015 Cy Young winning version of himself, but Keuchel is a pitcher who will provide big things for a starting rotation, wherever he ends up signing.

With the Padres now having confirmed interest in the lefty, let’s take a look at the positives and negatives of bringing Keuchel to San Diego.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 29: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros makes his way in from the bull pen after warming up before pitching against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on August 29, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Dallas Keuchel can still bring a lot to the San Diego Padres.

He may not be the Dallas Keuchel of 2015 who won a Cy Young and Gold Glove Award while making his first of two All-Star games, but the seven-year veteran is still a pitcher who is more than capable of making any team in baseball better.

In 34 starts, Keuchel posted a 12-11 record with a 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP) and logged 200 innings for the first time since his Cy Young season. He finished with a 3.6 fWAR, a big upgrade from his 2.4 fWAR season of 2017.

For context, the Padres haven’t had a starting pitcher worth at least 3.0 fWAR since Tyson Ross in 2015. The closest to achieving that mark since, Drew Pomeranz.

Keuchel is a workhorse, the likes San Diego has not seen in a long while. In three of his last five seasons, Keuchel has worked a minimum of 200 innings, including a career-high 232 innings in 2015. The Padres have had just one pitcher log 200+ innings since 2015, James Shields. Clayton Richard has been touted as the “innings-eater” of the team, yet there is a high probability that he does not make the starting rotation next year.

Across his near 1,200 career innings, Keuchel hasn’t been great at limiting contact, but he has been great at limiting quality contact. Check out his home run allowed rate each season since 2014:

2014- 0.50/9 IP
2015- 0.66/9 IP
2016- 1.07/9 IP
2017- 0.93/9 IP
2018- 0.79/9 IP

Only seven pitchers in baseball (among qualified starters) gave up fewer home runs per game.

A groundball artist (53.7% groundball rate, the highest mark for qualified pitchers), opponents have recorded an average launch angle of 0.9, 3.4, -1.6, and 4.2 degrees over his past four seasons. The league average in 2018 was 10.9 degrees. With a solid defense behind him, Keuchel should continue to succeed at a high level, despite being a pitch-to-contact pitcher. However, there are a lot of negatives to consider.

OAKLAND, CA – APRIL 14: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros looks on as Khris Davis #2 of the Oakland Athletics trots around the bases after hitting a solo home run in the bottom of the second inning at Oakland Alameda Coliseum on April 14, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

There are just as many reasons the San Diego Padres should not sign Dallas Keuchel.

Groundballs, weak contact, innings-eater, and ability to strand runners on base are all big positives towards signing Dallas Keuchel, but does he make sense for the San Diego Padres?

He turns 31 on New Year’s Day and would be joining a Padres team that won’t be contending in 2019 and hopes to be only entering their “contending window” in 2020. MLBTradeRumors projects a four-year/$82 million deal for Keuchel this winter. Represented by Scott Boras, Keuchel is the top name left on the market and has been connected to many teams who have the means to win a bidding war. Also, word on the street is that Keuchel is seeking a “five or six-year deal.” Wow.

Keuchel utilizes multiple pitches and lives on the edge of the strike zone, however, his swing and miss rate took a massive dip in 2018. He posted the lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie season of 2012, sitting down 17.5% of hitter via the strikeout. He sat between 20.5% and 23.7% in each of his last three seasons. A 2.64 K-BB rate ranked Keuchel in the bottom half of qualified starting pitchers.

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Opponents made contact against 82% of Keuchel’s pitches and swung and missed on just 8% strikes, again, the lowest mark since his rookie season (52nd among 56 pitchers in MLB). Overall, Keuchel produced a 19.8% whiff rate, well below the 2018 league average for swings and misses.

There’s also his lack of velocity. Among 56 qualified starting pitchers in baseball last season, Keuchel’s average fastball velo of 89.3 mph ranked 54th, ahead of only Mike Leake and Kyle Hendricks. He won’t start throwing harder as he gets older and what happens if his command starts to slip, even just a little bit? Could be a recipe for disaster.

The odds of the San Diego Padres signing Dallas Keuchel seem low, but if he were to sign with the Padres, we would get an immediate idea of how well Luis Urias can handle the shortstop position. The bigger problem is third base. How confident are you in having Keuchel, an extreme groundball, pitch-to-contact pitcher, on the mound with a rookie at shortstop and (potentially) Wil Myers at third base?

Last point here. Keuchel is a left-handed pitcher that would join the likes of Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Robbie Erlin, Matt Strahm, and Richard, all of whom will be either in the rotation or right in the thick of of the competition for a rotation spot.

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What’s the verdict, Padres fans? Is Dallas Keuchel the front-line starter you want to the Padres to go after?

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