San Diego Padres Rumors: Tampa Bay Rays RHP Chris Archer

Will the San Diego Padres make a push for RHP Chris Archer?

According to Ken Rosenthal’s latest piece for The Athletic ($), it’s believed that the San Diego Padres are making a “big push” for Tampa Bay Rays RHP Chris Archer. Rosenthal believes that a deal is unlikely, however, this is the type of move the Padres need to make if they really believe in this “2020 run” mantra they continue to promise fans. This type of move meaning major league starting pitching, not necessarily Chris Archer.

Archer has been connected to the Padres before, with Friar faithful appearing to be deeply divided over whether or not he would be a positive addition to the roster.

Archer’s current contract runs through 2021, with him making less than $8.5 million each year. He will be 33 years old when it comes time for a new contract. With three-plus years of team control, Archer is sure to demand a large return. Look at what the Padres just received in exchange for Brad Hand. Jon Morosi just tweeted out that the Miami Marlins are asking for more than just Michael Chavis or Jay Grome from Boston, in exchange for their controllable set-up man, Drew Steckenrider. For team’s with controllable pitchers, it’s your time to sell.

The Tampa Bay system has many of the biggest minor league pieces in baseball. When Brent Honeywell returns from season-ending surgery, he is one of the top pitching prospects in the entire league and should be at or near the top of Tampa Bay’s rotation in 2020. Willy Adames has struggled in his chances with the Rays but is still a top 20 prospect. There’s also Brendan McKay (#22 overall) and Jesus Sanchez (#35) who rank in the top 100. A trio of Lowe’s (Josh, Nathaniel, and Brandon) aren’t too away from the major leagues and Wander Franco is only 17 but is raking in the Appalachian League. He has become a favorite of many prospect evaluators.

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This isn’t a system like the Baltimore Orioles or Kansas City Royals, where Austin Allen immediately becomes one of the top prospects if traded to either one of those teams. There’s no reason for Tampa Bay to trade Archer unless they get back at least two top 100 prospects (plus more talent).

Outside of Francisco Mejia and Cal Quantrill, it’s hard to justify selling any other top 100 guys (Tatis, Urias, Gore, Baez, Morejon, Espinoza, Paddack, Allen) for a pitcher with a higher wOBA  than Clayton Richard and has a rising WHIP/opponents average/hard-hit rate over the last three seasons. For those of you that enjoy WAR, Archer is at a 1.7, compared to Richard’s 1.0. (Archer 0.5, Richard 0.2 according to Baseball Reference’s WAR value).

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If San Diego could get Archer for one top 100 prospect, a few mid-level prospects, and a major league piece, that’s a different story. Unfortunately, that’s a pipe dream that just won’t happen. Tampa Bay, like San Diego, is in a position to demand the most value out of their talent.