The Padres Great Rule 5 Experiment

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Mar 22, 2016; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Jabari Blash (62) hits a home run during the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

The Great Rule V Experiment

In December, San Diego Padres General Manager A.J. Preller took advantage of the ease of drafting players via the Rule 5 draft system. He acquired four players that day, two by trade, two for the minimal investment of $50,000 per player. Thus began the Great Rule 5 Experiment.

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I’ll confess that I didn’t know a lot about the Rule 5 draft prior to this year. In the past, the occasional Rule 5 guy would show up, then typically be gone within a month, usually never to be heard from again. So when A.J. Preller signed four players, I had to do some research.

Drafting Rule 5 players is a bit like playing the lottery. You spend a couple of bucks, hoping for something big, but the vast majority of the time you end up with nothing.

Jandel Gustave, Patrick Schuster, George Kontos, Luis Perdomo (the other Luis Perdomo), Carlos Guevara, Michael Gardner, Callix Crabbe (and his career slash line of .176/.282/.206, compiled during his 34 AB stint with the Padres in 2008), Gabe DeHoyos, Kurt Isenberg. I could go on. But why name a bunch of guys you never heard of? These are the previous Rule 5 guys the Padres have picked up over the last few years.

By far the most successful Rule 5 draftee the Padres have had in the last ten years is Everth Cabrera. Drafted from the Rockies prior to the 2009 season, Cabrera surprised everyone by grabbing the starting shortstop position and hitting .255 with 25 steals, earning an 8^th-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. Cabrera faltered for a couple of years, but then came back to lead the league in stolen bases three years later.

In 2008, the Padres took Ivan Nova from the Yankees, but he was returned during Spring Training. Three years later, Nova was fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting, with a WAR of 3.4.

One of the more famous Rule 5 guys was Shane Victorino, taken by the Padres from the Dodgers, in the 2002 draft, when he was 22 years old. After hitting .151 in a month-and-a-half on the Padres roster, he was returned to LA, where he played in the minors for another two seasons. With the additional seasoning in the minors, Victorino went on to be one of the better center fielders in the National League, and has won World Series rings with the Phillies and Red Sox.

That’s the thing about these players. The reason they’re in the minor leagues, the reason they’re not protected by their teams, is that they’re typically not ready for the majors, may never be major league material, and if they do have the potential, they’re still likely several years away from being productive. That’s very likely the case with this year’s crop as well.

In fact, two of the players from this past December’s draft are already gone. Pitcher Blake Smith didn’t last long enough for me to remember his name without looking it up. And Josh Martin, although he has good enough stuff to record 12 strikeouts in eight innings during his Spring Training innings, wasn’t polished enough for the Pads to consider keeping him on the roster for a full season. So we’re already down to two. But these two have enough potential to be pretty exciting.

Next: Luis Perdomo Profile

Luis Perdomo

Luis Perdomo came to the Padres via a trade with the Rockies, who grabbed him from the Cardinals organization in the draft. After initially being signed at age 17, he spent a few unremarkable seasons in rookie ball and low A ball, then had a breakthrough in 2015 in A ball, his second season at that level. He put up a 3.68 ERA in 17 games, striking out 100 and walking only 31 in 100 innings. He was named the Pitcher of the month for the Cardinals’ organization in May.

Perdomo pitched in the Futures Game mid-season, which really kind of put him on the map as a prospect. He faced three hitters in that game, including

Trevor Story

and

Trea Turner

. You can view his performance at the 2:01:36 mark in this video. (Stay tuned after Perdomo’s appearance to see

Colin Rea

’s action in the game.)

The righthander has a nearly plus-plus fastball and a plus slider, and some felt that focusing on these two pitches might allow him to find some success in the majors this season. He also has a changeup, which is not considered major-league ready yet.

So that’s Perdomo’s case, very typical of most Rule 5 guys – got some talent, and not ready (or even really close to ready) for a promotion to the majors based on merit. But that leap in production in the low minors last year was apparently enough to convince the Padres’ brass that Perdomo had enough talent to warrant a roll of the dice. And Perdomo became one of the two Rule 5 players to make San Diego’s opening day roster.

It didn’t take long to see him in action. During that ugly loss on that first day of the season, Perdomo entered the game in the seventh inning with the Padres down 8-0, and one-plus innings later, he left with the team down by 14.

He was getting hit like you don’t often see guys getting hit in the majors – just hitter after hitter mashing line drives. His ERA after that game was 54.00, and his WHIP was 8.00.

Perdomo was lifted after Yasiel Puig’s triple / little-league home run. Due to a double-switch, the official replacement in the game for Perdomo was San Diego’s other Rule 5 Opening Day guy, Jabari Blash. We’ll get to him in a moment.

Since Opening Day, Perdomo has been a bit better. Frankly, it would be hard continue to be that bad over an extended period. He has yet to pitch a 1-2-3 inning in seven appearances, but his post-OD numbers are an ERA of 6.00, allowing four runs in six innings, and a WHIP of 2.16.

Manager Andy Green has done his best to allow Perdomo to pitch in low leverage situations; in fact, he has only pitched one game in which the Padres weren’t either winning or losing by four or more runs, and that was in the 14^th inning of that long Diamondbacks game. The Padres’ strange run of lopsided games is unlikely to last a full season, so Perdomo will eventually have to be used in tougher situations. If the team’s record improves to the point where wins and losses actually have post-season implications, the young pitcher will find himself needing to produce a lot better than he has been, if he wants to remain on the major league Padres.

Next: Jabari Blash

Apr 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Diego Padres pinch hitter Jabari Blash (32) heads home to score a run in the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. The Rockies defeated the Padres 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /

Jabari Blash Profile

Jabari Blash is here for one reason, and one reason only: To hit baseballs over the wall. The 27-year old has monstrous power, the kind that makes people stop what they’re doing to watch his at-bats. Like Perdomo, his time in the minors was largely unremarkable until last season. A slow six-year climb through the minors showed flashes of power, like in 2013 when he hit 25 in 109 games between A ball and AA. But in 2015, in a 56-game span in AAA, he connected for 22 bombs, slugging at a .640 rate, and homering once every nine at-bats.

That kind of power doesn’t come along every day. And that’s why the Padres traded for Blash after the A’s took him from Seattle in the draft. But his AAA batting average was only .240 over two years (.210 in 2014 and .264 in 2015). Even last year, he was still striking out at a 32% rate. Among qualified hitters in the majors last year, only Chris Davis whiffed at a higher rate (36%). And Davis hit 47 homers and drove in 117 runs. I’m not saying that Blash has to put up those kinds of numbers to stay put. But when you strike out almost a third of the time, you’d better be producing something that other players can’t.

At the age of 27, Blash has a much shorter window for success than the 22-year old Perdomo. If both manage to make it through this season with the Padres, Perdomo can realistically be sent back down for additional work in the minors next season. Blash, in what should be the beginning of his career prime years, may be a less likely candidate to be sent back down next year. He is almost aging out of “prospect” range, and the number of power hitters who make it to the majors at age 29 or older is small. So the Padres are hoping that Blash finds a way to learn how to hit major league pitching on the job.

He hasn’t had much success yet, with three hits in 17 AB, giving him a .176 average with no homers. Through 14 games, he has gotten three starts. At the current rate, he is on a pace to accumulate only 196 AB. At a time when consistent at-bats are crucial to his development, he is just not getting many.

And that is the dilemma for teams with Rule 5 guys. The players aren’t ready to provide consistent results at the major league level, and yet they need consistent work in order to improve.

A bad season for the Padres might be the best thing for Perdomo and Blash. If the team is out of the playoff race early, that could provide opportunities for more playing time. In a way, having some Rule 5 guys on your team is a good way to hedge your bets. If the season turns out to be a bust, at least you’ve got some talented young players getting major league experience.

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