The Great Rule 5 Experiment

Luis Perdomo

Luis Perdomo came to the Padres via a trade with the Rockies, who grabbed him from the Cardinals organization in the draft. After initially being signed at age 17, he spent a few unremarkable seasons in rookie ball and low A ball, then had a breakthrough in 2015 in A ball, his second season at that level. He put up a 3.68 ERA in 17 games, striking out 100 and walking only 31 in 100 innings. He was named the Pitcher of the month for the Cardinals’ organization in May.

Perdomo pitched in the Futures Game mid-season, which really kind of put him on the map as a prospect. He faced three hitters in that game, including

and

. You can view his performance at the 2:01:36 mark in this video. (Stay tuned after Perdomo’s appearance to see

’s action in the game.)

The righthander has a nearly plus-plus fastball and a plus slider, and some felt that focusing on these two pitches might allow him to find some success in the majors this season. He also has a changeup, which is not considered major-league ready yet.

So that’s Perdomo’s case, very typical of most Rule 5 guys – got some talent, and not ready (or even really close to ready) for a promotion to the majors based on merit. But that leap in production in the low minors last year was apparently enough to convince the Padres’ brass that Perdomo had enough talent to warrant a roll of the dice. And Perdomo became one of the two Rule 5 players to make San Diego’s opening day roster.

It didn’t take long to see him in action. During that ugly loss on that first day of the season, Perdomo entered the game in the seventh inning with the Padres down 8-0, and one-plus innings later, he left with the team down by 14.

He was getting hit like you don’t often see guys getting hit in the majors – just hitter after hitter mashing line drives. His ERA after that game was 54.00, and his WHIP was 8.00.

Perdomo was lifted after Yasiel Puig’s triple / little-league home run. Due to a double-switch, the official replacement in the game for Perdomo was San Diego’s other Rule 5 Opening Day guy, Jabari Blash. We’ll get to him in a moment.

Since Opening Day, Perdomo has been a bit better. Frankly, it would be hard continue to be that bad over an extended period. He has yet to pitch a 1-2-3 inning in seven appearances, but his post-OD numbers are an ERA of 6.00, allowing four runs in six innings, and a WHIP of 2.16.

Manager Andy Green has done his best to allow Perdomo to pitch in low leverage situations; in fact, he has only pitched one game in which the Padres weren’t either winning or losing by four or more runs, and that was in the 14^th inning of that long Diamondbacks game. The Padres’ strange run of lopsided games is unlikely to last a full season, so Perdomo will eventually have to be used in tougher situations. If the team’s record improves to the point where wins and losses actually have post-season implications, the young pitcher will find himself needing to produce a lot better than he has been, if he wants to remain on the major league Padres.

Next: Jabari Blash

Jabari Blash Profile

Jabari Blash is here for one reason, and one reason only: To hit baseballs over the wall. The 27-year old has monstrous power, the kind that makes people stop what they’re doing to watch his at-bats. Like Perdomo, his time in the minors was largely unremarkable until last season. A slow six-year climb through the minors showed flashes of power, like in 2013 when he hit 25 in 109 games between A ball and AA. But in 2015, in a 56-game span in AAA, he connected for 22 bombs, slugging at a .640 rate, and homering once every nine at-bats.

That kind of power doesn’t come along every day. And that’s why the Padres traded for Blash after the A’s took him from Seattle in the draft. But his AAA batting average was only .240 over two years (.210 in 2014 and .264 in 2015). Even last year, he was still striking out at a 32% rate. Among qualified hitters in the majors last year, only Chris Davis whiffed at a higher rate (36%). And Davis hit 47 homers and drove in 117 runs. I’m not saying that Blash has to put up those kinds of numbers to stay put. But when you strike out almost a third of the time, you’d better be producing something that other players can’t.

At the age of 27, Blash has a much shorter window for success than the 22-year old Perdomo. If both manage to make it through this season with the Padres, Perdomo can realistically be sent back down for additional work in the minors next season. Blash, in what should be the beginning of his career prime years, may be a less likely candidate to be sent back down next year. He is almost aging out of “prospect” range, and the number of power hitters who make it to the majors at age 29 or older is small. So the Padres are hoping that Blash finds a way to learn how to hit major league pitching on the job.

He hasn’t had much success yet, with three hits in 17 AB, giving him a .176 average with no homers.  Through 14 games, he has gotten three starts. At the current rate, he is on a pace to accumulate only 196 AB. At a time when consistent at-bats are crucial to his development, he is just not getting many.

And that is the dilemma for teams with Rule 5 guys. The players aren’t ready to provide consistent results at the major league level, and yet they need consistent work in order to improve.

A bad season for the Padres might be the best thing for Perdomo and Blash. If the team is out of the playoff race early, that could provide opportunities for more playing time. In a way, having some Rule 5 guys on your team is a good way to hedge your bets. If the season turns out to be a bust, at least you’ve got some talented young players getting major league experience.