Padres Editorials: What Would Padres Rotation Be Today?

This article is dedicated to Thomas L. Webber who wrote a comment in my article on what the Padres lineup would be if the season started today. He wrote: “Nice read Keegan, BUT where is the analysis of our Starting Pitchers and our Bull Pen??” First off, Mr. Webber, thank you for the compliment. As to your question, here is what the Padres rotation would be if the season were to start today.

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Let us start with the obvious. The top three of Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner. While it seems that General Manager A.J. Preller would be keen on trading one of those three if not more, this is an article revolving around the roster today. Note that Ross is the number one name in the trio. In Ross’s 196 innings, he pitched to the tune of a 3.26 ERA and 2.98 FIP (fielding independent pitching ERA estimate) accompanied by a 3.1 WAR. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and a 1.9 WAR in his 202.1 innings. Granted, Manager Andy Green will likely throw Shields for Opening Day. Given that he appears to be the leader of the staff, this article will write his name for the Opening Day lineup card. Shields number one; Ross second.

Cashner had a disappointing 2015. Really disappointing. He pitched a career-high 184.2 innings. But, despite a world of talent, a lively arm, and a low degree of walks for a power pitcher, Cashner logged an ERA of 4.34. His defense let him down, which is reflected in his 3.85 FIP. But he surrendered 22 unearned runs. As terrible as the Padre defense was behind him, after a certain point, there is no excuse. The pitcher, too, is responsible. His rates for hits per nine, home runs per nine, walks per nine, and strikeouts per nine all went up in 2015 as compared to 2013 and 2014. My guess is that his lack of run support combined with some struggles and poor defense got into his head in 2015. If Cashner stays healthy, he is poised to have a bounce-back 2016. He is tabbed for number three.

The obvious is over. Now, for the number four and five. Gunning for those spots are: Colin Rea, Robbie Erlin, Odrisamer Despaigne, Luis Perdomo, Drew Pomeranz, and Brandon Maurer.

Next: Brandon Maurer

Let us start by eliminating a couple people who are easy to do so with. After the signing of long reliever Carlos Villanueva, Despaigne is redundant in the bullpen. We could throw Villanueva’s name into the mix, but he hasn’t been a regular starter at really any point in his career and when he has started, he has a career ERA of 5.00. Anyways, back to Despaigne. If he doesn’t make it into the rotation, then he will likely either be sent down to the minors or be released. In his 125.2 innings, including 18 starts in 2015, Despaigne had an atrocious 5.80 ERA. It seems as if major leaguers caught up with his funky windup, arm angles, and arsenal of below average pitches. With that 5.80 ERA, Despaigne is getting kicked off of today’s mock rotation.

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I should also address the minor league signing of Brandon Morrow. He was excellent in his five starts as a Padre. But Morrow is injury-prone and heading into his age 31 season. Little faith should be had for him to put up a good enough showing to make the rotation.

In his age 24 season, Maurer pitched well, compiling a 3.00 ERA and 3.31 FIP in 53 innings. The idea of having him transition into the rotation, as has been rumored, is a bad one, despite him telling MLB.com’s Padres beat writer Corey Brock that he wants to start. In his 108.2 career relief innings, Maurer has an ERA of 3.40. Note how he improved upon it in 2015. But as a starter, crank that ERA up to 6.62 in the reasonable sample size of 102 innings. This is likely due to the fact that the former-Mariner has only two good pitches – his fastball and his slider/cutter. His changeup needs improvement before he can transition back to starting games. A starter needs three pitches unless he has two excellent ones (see Sandy Koufax).

Now, we move to the candidates who should be looked at the most closely for the rotation before coming to the decisions.

Luis Perdomo is one of four Rule 5 Draft picks the Padres have on the roster. His is the number 9 prospect on MLB.com’s Padres prospect list. Unfortunately, they estimate that he won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2018. Between A and high-A ball, Perdomo had a 3.98 ERA in 126.2 innings. Perdomo possesses a mid-90s fastball that, along with his other pitches, have become more controllable since a change in his mechanics. He will turn 23 in May.

Next: Other Rotation Options

The Texas Rangers sent Robbie Erlin in the deal that sent Mike Adams to the Lone Star State. He was rated highly as a prospect as he was projected to be a guy with decent stuff but good control. Unfortunately, Erlin hasn’t really put things together in the majors since debuting in 2013. He has pitched 133 major league innings including 23 starts and four relief appearances. But in none of Erlin’s three seasons has he done better than a 4.12 ERA. He has, indeed, had low walk rates, but his lack of control within the strike zone has hurt him. Erlin enters only his age 25 season with increasingly improving peripheries. 

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Colin Rea came out of nowhere and soared to the top of Padre prospect lists in his age 24 season. He made 6 starts in 2015 pitching 31.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA and 3.45 FIP before his season ended on the disabled list. The pattern with Rea was that he would pitch lights-out for all but one inning, when he would blow up and surrender a few runs. It isn’t uncommon for young pitchers to have a difficult time pitching out of jams. Rea’s peripheries were good during his September call up.

Drew Pomeranz came over in the deal that sent Yonder Alonso to Oakland. But before that, he was a highly-touted Cleveland prospect who was packaged in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade. He was a bit of a disaster in Colorado, but improved in Oakland. However, one cannot escape his splits: 4.60 ERA in 228.2 innings as a starter and a 2.14 ERA in 63 relief innings. It would seem as though Pomeranz should be ticketed for the bullpen for the same reasons as Brandon Maurer. In fact, that was what I was thinking heading into writing this article. But Pomeranz pitched in Coors Field as a young pitcher. After all, 2016 will be only his age 27 season. As it turns out, in his 19 Oakland starts, Pomeranz pitched 97 innings for a 3.52 ERA. Are being so highly rated, it had seemed as though he was a bust. But, sometimes and particularly with lefties, prospects can take a while to adjust to the majors before realizing their potential. Were Pomeranz’s 19 starts in Oakland a fluke? Is he really better suited for the bullpen?

Next: Four and Five Starters