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Padres Should Not Trade for These Shortstops

By Keegan Tatum |
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Sep 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman Yunel Escobar (5) hits an RBI double against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fifth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Previously, here at FriarsOnBase, we posted an article about which free agent shortstops could be on the Padres shopping list and which worked best. General Manager A.J. Preller might very well seek to get a shortstop via trade. Before getting into whom he should target, let’s go through some players that have been talked about as options but should be avoided.

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Let’s just eliminate Jose Reyes. Perhaps, he’s a buy-low candidate. But with the domestic violence possibility, the Padres shouldn’t touch Reyes with a 400-foot pole.

Yunel Escobar

The Nationals have made Escobar available:

In the Nation’s Capital, Escobar had one of his best seasons at the plate hitting .314/.375/.415/.790 (113 OPS+). After eight years in the bigs at shortstop, Escobar occupied third base for 134 games in 2015. The Cuban-native is a high-on-base player with slightly-below-average power. He consistently plays at least 130 games. His contract is worth only $7 million this year with the same amount due in 2017 if his club option gets picked up. So why is Escobar on this list?

Through 2012, Escobar was a slick fielder – one of the better in baseball. But then, he turned 30. In 2014, he played 136 games at short for the Rays. He cost Tampa Bay 24 runs by Baseball Info Solutions Measure and 17 runs by BaseballProjection.com. His range – something that once elevated him – slipped to dangerously below average. Even at third base last season, Escobar showed range worse than that of Yangervis Solarte. It was outright terrible. The Padres can’t afford a bad defender at such a key defensive position.

Elvis Andrus

At 26, Andrus’s value continues to diminish. His contract is set to give him another $103 million over the next seven years with a vesting option for an eighth. Preller has reportedly checked in with the Rangers on Andrus. The Texas shortstop has played a minimum of 145 games every year of his career and at least 156 for the past four seasons. But over those past four seasons, his on-base percentage has dropped every year – down to a pedestrian .309 in 2015. Andrew continues to have excellent range and is an overall positive with the glove. While he has 217 steals in his seven Major League seasons, Andrus has never cracked a league-average 100 OPS+. At $15 million per year, his offensive output is simply not enough.

Next: Other Shortstop Options

October 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Starlin Castro (13) falls after striking out in the second inning against the New York Mets in game four of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Jed Lowrie

Lowrie was recently traded back to Oakland, so it seems his trade prospects aren’t great. For Houston, the infielder appeared in only 69 games as he was limited by injuries. His on-base suffered and declined to .312. However, Lowrie is consistently better than the norm with getting on base (.330 OBP over the past three seasons).

The durability problem is very legitimate considering that, as it stands, Alexi Amarista is the backup at short. But beyond questions over durability, it is again the defense that knocks this player out of contention. Lowrie’s range at short was only up to the league average since 2012 – no other season in his career. He has cost his teams runs at short over the course of his career. After a season off from the position, in his age 32 season, it is unlikely Lowrie would be a durable and solid defensive option.

Starlin Castro

He will turn 26 in March. He has sloppy mechanics and quite possibly a poor attitude that has gotten in the way of his superstar potential. After struggling in 2013, Castro rebounded for a good 2014 and proceeded to falter again through the start of 2015. After an August 6 game, Castro had a .236/.271/.304/.575 slashline. He was replaced at short by Addison Russell. Castro started at second base on August 11. It was a good move all around.

Castro took off as a second baseman almost completely salvaging his season at the plate. He ended the season with a .671 OPS. His defense at short had always been sloppy. Castro seemed lazy sometimes; his footwork was poor. But he was very good on the other side of second base.

Unfortunately, it seems that Castro needs to stay at second. He is clearly comfortable there and the Padres clearly don’t need another second baseman.

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In Baseball America’s 2016 top Padre prospects list, three shortstops make the top five. Jose Rondon at five; Ruddy Giron at four; and Javier Guerra at number one. MLB.com has Giron and Guerra being big league ready in 2018, Rondon in 2017. Relying on prospects is a major risk. But one of those three is likely to make it in the bigs.

The Padres strategy should be to put an average place-holder in to play a year or two before prospects start to take over the position.

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