Padres Free Agent Hunt: Pitchers

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Oct 8, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo throws a pitch in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays in game one of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Fred Thornhill-Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Earlier, I argued that the Padres need to go out and get another starter to follow up James Shields, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner. With the trades of Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel, the Padres freed up $20.25 million for 2016. If General Manager A.J. Preller looks to the new free agent class, whom could he target?

Note: for all contract estimates, I used MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions.

Let’s first rule out a few guys that are not or should not happen. David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto are going to command over $20 million per year. The Padres need a shortstop, which means that all of these guys are just too expensive.

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After a bad 2015, Jeff Samardzija is not someone to target. His lively arm and good movement make baseball people drool. The problem is that beyond a good 2014, Samardzija has never really had a good season. The Padres should pass.

John Lackey will enter his age 37 season. The Padres are not in win-now mode to that extent. Pass on Lackey.

Doug Fister and Brett Anderson are too injury prone for the Padres to run the risk.

J.A. Happ had a fabulous second-half stretch in Pittsburgh. But he had only one good season – his rookie season in 2009.

With that, we come to viable options for the Padres. Note that this has multiple pages.

Ian Kennedy

Kennedy rejected the $15.8 million qualifying offer the Padres extended to him. However, he will likely be looking for a three- to four-year deal worth $13 million per year.

We are pretty familiar with his terrible start to 2015, which was followed by a very good stretch of 22 starts. If Kennedy were to replicate his three seasons as a Padre, manager Andy Green would be adding a below-average starter to the rotation. Kennedy has a 3.97 ERA and an ERA+ of 88 in his Padre career.

Preller would likely be signing him for his age 31-33 seasons. Can we expect him to improve north of 30?

By the adage of $6 million per win (WAR), based on his last three years, Kennedy should be paid just over $2 million per year. Is he worth $13 million per year? Unlikely.

Yovani Gallardo

Despite a 2015 in the hitters’ haven of Arlington and an ERA of 3.42, Gallardo is expected to sign in the same vicinity as Kennedy – four years, $13 million per season. In hitters’ parks, Gallardo consistently is above the league average in ERA, typically hovering in the mid- to high-3’s. His ERA+ over the past three seasons has been 107, with each year being better than the last.

Gallardo will turn 30 when pitchers and catchers meet. So why such a low estimated contract? Well, in each of the last three years, he has surrendered more hit than innings pitched. His 3.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 are not particularly good. And his FIP of 3.95 indicates that his 3.70 ERA has been lower than expected over the past three seasons. His 5.8 innings per start over that same timespan is also unpleasant to look at.

Regardless, looking at his WAR over the past three seasons, Gallardo was worth $14.2 million per year. He seems on pace to be equally productive. If Gallardo is singable for $13 million per year over a few years, the Padres should go for it. Put him in a park that plays more even to pitchers, add in Darren Balsley, and he might very well flourish.

Next: Better Targets

Sep 29, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Mat Latos (55) delivers a pitch during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Hisashi Iwakuma

Iwakuma comes off of another good ERA season with an injury that limited him. In 2014, he missed 5 starts. In 2015, he missed 13. That’s a bad trend heading into his age 35 season. So too is his slowly increasing ERA. Last year’s 3.54 was a hair above his career high. For these worries, Iwakuma is a buy-low free agent – estimated at three years, $45 million.

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Iwakuma was worth $23.8 million per year over the past three seasons, when using the $/WAR standard, despite the missed time.

Iwakuma is a risk and a pretty expensive one for an older pitcher with some injuries. Preller would be and likely will be wise to pass.

Mat Latos

Another buy-low guy. After a 2015 that saw injures, a 4.95 ERA, and Latos on three different teams, the former-Padre is a perfect candidate for a one-year contract. While in 2014 and 15, Latos failed to avoid the injury bug, he had been a consistent and reliable pitcher before. From 2010-14, Latos threw up a 3.27 ERA (116 ERA+), 3.33 FIP, and averaged 29 starts.

Next season, Latos will be 28. He is projected to get a one-year deal worth $12 million.

On the bad side, one could argue that he has declined over the past couple years. He has never pitched well in the first or last month of the season, which is extra bad if the Padres hope to play in October. Plus, he is allowing a higher and higher rate of hits.

On the good side, he pitched well in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball in Cincinnati. He had only one bad year and that came while never seeming to get comfortable in his new settings. Perhaps a familiar one would do him some good. His walk rate remains good. Lagos will only be 28.

This would be one of my favorite candidates. He’s a low risk, high reward player. If he does well, perhaps the Padres could throw in an option in the contract for 2017. If he doesn’t work out, then he won’t set the franchise back (like if James Shields continues the poor play he showed in 2015).

Mike Leake

Leake is very consistently average – a slightly better version of Ian Kennedy, really. His peripheries have been remarkably consistent throughout his career. There’s really not much to say other than that he is just average. By average, I mean a career 101 ERA+ kind of average. However, with the money the Padres have available, average might be all they can get.

Estimates have Leake inking a five-year deal for $18 million average. He was worth $14.8 million per year over the past three years. So the asking price is about right considering he will be entering his physical prime.

The problem here is that the Padres need a shortstop more than a guy who’s two years younger than Gallardo with virtually the same ERA. Leake would be a good sign, but an expensive one.

Now, onto perhaps the best pitchers.

Next: Pitching Targets

Oct 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (26) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game two of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Wei-Yin Chen

The 30 year-old from Taiwan pitched four years in Baltimore with a good track record. In only one of those four seasons has he failed to start at least 31 games. His career ERA is 3.72 (110 ERA+). While he has given up slightly more hits than he has innings pitched, Chen compensates with a career 2.2 BB/9.

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Projections have Chen making $18 million per year over a five-year contract. Being a year and a half older than Mike Leake but having a better ERA and being left-handed seem to offset each other. Chen is a better option than Leake, but, perhaps, still too expensive. He would fit in as a quite good number three. Looking at his past four years, he was valued around $15 million per year in wins. The Padres would be buying a little high considering most of the contract would likely be paying a declining Chen. Paying him $18 million per year would require that the Padres ship off salary or look to the trade market for a shortstop. The latter isn’t a bad option and is likely necessary.

But, the next man appears to be a better option.

Scott Kazmir

Kazmir has been a great story since the Indians took a risk and signed him for a comeback attempt in 2013. Since then, the lefty has averaged 31 starts and 177 innings along with a 3.54 ERA (109 ERA+) that has improved in each of these past three years. His 3.10 ERA last year was his career best.

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Kazmir has actually gotten better with age, which increases the soon-to-be 32 year old starter’s value. MLB Trade Rumors projects a four-year, $52 million ($13 million average) – the same as Kennedy and Gallardo. Of the three, he would be the best. Unless Robbie Erlin makes the team as the number five starter, the Padres do not have a lefty in the rotation. Note how they also don’t have a good lefty out of the bullpen. Despite his age, Kazmir might be the best option for Preller. The Padres could sign him and still afford a shortstop like Alexei Ramirez.

The knock against sign Kazmir is that Preller would be signing another early-30s veteran pitcher on a team that needs to be looking at the next few years as possible winners. I’m not sure I would buy this criticism, but that makes it no less legitimate.

Keegan’s free agent power rankings, best bang for the Padre buck, best signing for the team are as follows:

Scott Kazmir
Yovani Gallardo
Mat Latos
Wei-Yin Chen
Mike Leake
Hisashi Iwakuma
Ian Kennedy

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Padres Editorial: Free Agent Hunt – Pitchers

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