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Padres Editorial: What Free Agent First Baseman Should Padres Target?

By Keegan Tatum |
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Sep 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) singles during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

At first base, the Padres have three current options on the roster: Wil Myers, Yonder Alonso, and Brett Wallace. Given the flexibility, GM A.J. Preller doesn’t need to go out and sign a free agent first baseman.

Before getting to the free agents (next page), however, let us discuss why the Padres should or should not add a first baseman.

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First: why not. The Padres have a great deal of flexibility at the position. Yonder Alonso hit for a very good .361 on-base. Granted, Alonso has little power at a historically slugging position. But the Padres are in dire need of a guy who can get on base. If healthy, Alonso is that guy.

Wallace hit very well last year in his 64 games. So, if Alonso gets injured they have a backup in Wallace.

Otherwise, the Padres have Myers to occupy first base. He hit far better when playing corner infield in 2015 – .875 OPS (.763 season total). Batting splits at different positions are not random. They can very much indicate the comfort of a player. With Myers having been injured much of the past two season, removing him from the outfield would lessen the toll on his body. Plus, while being an average defensive corner outfielder, Myers has Gold Glove potential at first.

By putting Myers at first, the club could fill left field with Rymer Liriano, Hunter Renfroe, or Alex Dickerson. Out of three highly touted prospects, one is bound to work out. Rather than signing an expensive and old free agent, the Padres could field a younger and longer lasting team.

The case for signing a free agent. The injury bug likes to bite Alonso and Myers. Who is to say they will be healthy? Wallace hit for a below league average .643 when having to actually man first base. And who can say when, or even if, any of these prospects will blossom into the kinds of players scouts say they can be?

Ultimately, a couple of these options are ultimately more productive than any option the Padres have. The team is constructed to win within the next couple years. Does waiting for a couple prospects make sense when Preller already traded away so many?

Oct 31, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy commits a fielding error on a ball hit by Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (not pictured) in the 8th inning in game four of the World Series at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Free Agents Padres Should Avoid

Let’s just start off by eliminating a few names.

Corey Hart and Jeff Baker each hit the free agent market. Neither of them is particularly useful. Hart seems to have lost his ability to live up to the league average. Also having disappeared is his durability. Hart has failed to play 80 games since 2012. Baker is great against left-handed pitching. But he’s ultimately a supplemental player. The Padres have enough of those filling the roster.

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Daniel Murphy is also an option at first base, especially considering he isn’t good defensively at second base. Despite a great postseason, Murphy’s highest career OPS+ is 126 back in 2011. He is certainly above the league average, but not worth a four-year $50 million-plus. He is not enough of an improvement.

The Padres Could Pursue…

Steve Pearce. Pearce finished 2013 strongly enough to merit a larger role on the 2014 Baltimore Orioles. He had a breakout .293/.373/.556/.930 slashline in 102 games.

By 2015, he had forced his way into the everyday lineup. But this year, he hit .218/.289/.442/.711. Decent power with a poor on-base. Despite being above average defensively, Pearce is not the player the Padres should get to play first base everyday. He would come pretty cheap. But the team is right-handed enough.

Still, Pearce is an interesting option who should be lightly considered if the market is low enough.

For the big names, go to the next page.

Aug 23, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Texas Rangers designated hitter Mike Napoli (25) in the dugout before the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Napoli. Napoli is the player that is the more feasible big-name signing. Over the past three seasons, Napoli has saved his teams an estimated 23 and 20 defensive runs, according to BaseballProjection.com and Baseball Info Solutions respectively. Those numbers are fantastic.

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At the plate, Napoli struggled with Boston and hit wonderfully after being traded to the Rangers. He finished the season with a .224/.324/.410/.734 slashline in 133 games. Over the past three years, Napoli has hit .245/.352/.440/.792 averaging 130 games.

Napoli hitting in two right-handed hitter-friendly parks could be a concern, though he hit well with the Angels.

The knocks on Napoli other than a dismal first half in 2015 with Boston are his age – 34 – and that he’s right-handed. Due to his age, the Padres might be able to sign him to a shorter deal, maybe only two or three years, which would be less of a risk long-term than the next man.

Chris Davis. FriarsOnBase‘s Jacob Kornhauser already wrote a piece supporting that the Padres get Davis. The move would make sense. The Padres would get a left-handed hitter in a right-handed heavy lineup and with power that has led the American League twice over the past three seasons. Over those three years, Davis hit .252/.347/.544/.891 with a 140 OPS+ averaging 149 games. Despite the rather poor showing in 2014, a .347 on-base would have been second on the Padres last year. His .361 on-base in 2015 would have tied for the team lead. So Davis is more than just a home run threat.

However, one could very well raise concern over the 2014 season in which he hit for a league-average .704 OPS and was suspended for using Adderall. The same goes for his strike outs – 208 in 2015.

Defensively, Davis is below average. Not a calamity, but just below the norm. But who cares with that level of offense?

Imagine a middle of the order with Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, and Chris Davis. And keep on using that imagination because it will cost a pretty penny to get Davis to sign. Davis will be entering his age 30 season. MLB Trade Rumors expects Davis will get a six-year $144 million deal that will take him through his age 35 season. We are beyond the steroid era. Can the Padres invest another $20+ million per year on another guy in his mid-30s? MLB Trade Rumors estimates that between guaranteed money, arbitration, and the league minimum salaries to fill out the roster, the Padres will have about a $110 million payroll for 2016. Can they go past $130 million? Doubtful. So the Padres would have to unload someone. So is Davis really worth it considering that the Padres have holes bigger than first base? A.J. Preller will have to decide that.

Conclusion

Chris Davis is not worth it. With a team that is more than a piece away from winning, Napoli doesn’t make the greatest amount of sense either. So, we come to the Padres not going after a free agent first baseman.

The best course of action is to let Wil Myers and Yonder Alonso occupy the position and for Preller to attack his shortstop problem first.

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