Padres Editorial: 3 Reasons Why Spring Training Records Mean Nothing

Mar 4, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Fans look on during a spring training baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres have shown that they have improved as an offense so far this spring. The pitching has been sub-par at times. My message? Don’t read too much into it. I too am encouraged by the Padres’ .293 average so far this spring. However, we still have a long road before these games and stats start counting towards a playoff run.

It’s only early March. With so many new players it will take some time for them to gel as a team. They haven’t had enough time because not all of the projected starters have been in the same starting lineup yet. In spring training the new stars are only going to play four to five innings then be replaced by minor league prospects. The gelling process will go well into April, so sit tight.

There are several reasons why win-loss records and statistics don’t matter much in the spring. The main purpose of spring is to warm up, see who will be on the Opening Day roster, and give that team’s players time to mesh together so they can put up some W’s come Opening Day. Plus, it is called Spring Training. Meaning this is a time of training, practicing, and “sharpening the axe.” Lets give everyone their space. Let them take some batting practice, throw bullpen sessions and get stronger. There is still a month before any of this counts. Here are three reasons why we shouldn’t read too much into records and stats quite yet…

Oct 30, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell hoists the World Series championship trophy after game six of the MLB baseball World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won 6-1 to win the series four games to two. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Reason #1 Teams that have had losing records in Spring Training have gone on to win the World Series

After looking back at all the Spring Trainings from 2008 to 2014, the numbers speak for themselves. Just because you have an average or even below average record in the spring doesn’t mean you won’t make the playoffs. I looked at the top 5 teams from each league in Spring Training of each of those years and more often than not, the top five teams in Spring Training did not end up being in the top five teams in the major leagues that same regular season.

Since 2008, of the 70 teams that finished in the top five for each league during Spring Training, only 26 ended up making the playoffs that same year. That is 37%. Of the seven World Series champions, only four of those teams finished in the top five during their Spring Training; three of those were the San Francisco Giants.

Three times in the last seven years, the team that finished last in their league in Spring Training ended up making the playoffs. In 2010, the eventual American League champion Texas Rangers finished last in the Cactus league that year with a 10-19 record. The 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates, who made the playoffs for the first time in years, finished last in the Grapefruit League that year with a record of 13-18. Last years Los Angeles Dodgers, who had an impressive regular season run and made the playoffs, were last in the Cactus League with a 7-12 record.

Three World Series Champions in the last seven years didn’t finish Spring Training with a winning record (Phillies, Cardinals, Red Sox).

Mar 5, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres second baseman Cory Spangenberg (15) hits a double in the third inning during a spring training baseball game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Reason #2 After the 6th inning, it is mostly minor leaguers on the field battling for a roster spot

Two losses so far for the Padres have come in the later innings. That is when players who likely will start the year in Triple-A, Double-A or lower play against each other.

It is hard to tell who is better than who when there is a Triple-A pitcher facing a Single-A hitter and vice versa. It is not a level playing field and it is not meant to be. This is a tryout for them. Heck, there are even MLB teams playing (and losing too, ahem, Phillies) college teams. People blow the win-loss record of Spring Training way out of proportion. I usually only pay attention to the score until the fifth inning but that isn’t a complete baseball game. The Padres don’t get to dish out Dale Thayer, Kevin Quackenbush and Joaquin Benoit late in these games to hold a lead or close a game.

I like seeing match-ups early in the game like Ian Kennedy vs. Nelson Cruz, or Madison Bumgarner vs. Wil Myers. All bets are off after the fifth or sixth inning. A baseball game is nine innings long, not five or six. That’s not to say the late innings don’t have meaning. Those are players fighting for a spot and they are playing hard. But it is not indicative of what will happen in April or October.