Padres Editorial: In Defense of Cameron Maybin, Will Venable, Abraham Almonte and a Poll

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Wil Myers is on paper as the San Diego Padres‘ starting center fielder.  In reality, he simply does not have the range to play center field all nine innings, especially in close games.  So who will come in late in the games?  Who will be his overall backup? 

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Jeremy Loeks: 

With all of the upgrades to the Padres’ outfield during the off-season, Bud Black has plenty of options for the team’s fourth outfielder. Here at Friars on Base, we believe the three options for the positions are Cameron Maybin, Will Venable, and Abraham Almonte. So I and a couple of the other staff writers – Keegan Tatum and Andrew Beccarelli – each decided to take one of the aforementioned outfielders and give our pitch for why they should be the fourth outfielder come April.  So you as the reader can decide who should be the fourth outfielder for the Padres in 2015.

Andrew Beccarelli:

The Padres have remade their outfield lineup with the acquisitions of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. This makes all previous outfielders on the Pad Squad expendable trade bait or dead weight that should be cut loose. There is however one outfielder currently on the roster that we should hold on to because we will need him for those late inning defensive Web-Gems.

Keegan Tatum:

Out of the 25-man roster, 12 will be pitchers.  There are likely to be two catchers, seven infielders, and the three definite outfielders in Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers.  That leaves just one spot. Here are our arguments for who should take that spot.

Sep 21, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Cameron Maybin (24) hits a two RBI single during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Jeremy Loeks: In Defense of Cameron Maybin

In 2007, Cameron Maybin was a can’t miss prospect at the center of a trade between the Detroit Tigers and Florida Marlins for future triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera and standout pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Fast forward a disappointing three seasons, and the Florida Marlins shipped Maybin to the San Diego Padres for relief pitchers Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. Now with the Padres it seemed like Maybin had finally put it all together posting a WAR of 4.5 and 3.0 in 2011 and 2012.

2013 and 2014 were back to back injury-riddled seasons that seemed to derail any progress he had made in his previous two. However, I believe fully healthy, there is no reason to think that Maybin cannot get back to a place to where he is 3-4 WAR player which is fantastic for a fourth outfielder.

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If we look at the other two candidates, they have not even approached a season this productive. Venable’s best season WAR is 1.2 and Almonte (in limited PA’s) has only achieved a WAR of 0.2 in his best season.

However, taking a look a WAR may not be the best choice when determining who should be the best outfielder. Let’s take a look how each player ranks when it comes to what the tools scouts look at (arm strength, speed, glove, average and power) to determine which player would be the best option in 2015.

First arm strength, in my opinion the best determination for arm strength is the stat percentage of runners held. As a baseline let’s use Vladimir Guerrero a player known for a great defensive arm, and over his career he held 48.8% of baserunners who had the opportunity to advance. Maybin has had mediocre success holding batters from taking the extra base only allowing 282 in 634 plate appearances for a percentage held of 44.5%, this is just below the major league average of 45%.

Will Venable on the other hand has been pretty poor at holding base runners with a 41.5% held average. On the other end of the spectrum, Abraham Almonte has been excellent at this, holding an amazing 49.3% of baserunners in very limited opportunities. So, for arm strength it is Almonte winning, followed by Maybin and Venable in last.

Secondly is speed, in terms of speed I prefer just looking at stolen bases especially for a fourth outfielder since being a pinch runner will be a big part of their role with the team. First, let’s start with Almonte, since he doesn’t have enough plate appearance for a 162-game season, I will average his stats out to a 162-game season. In 162 games, he would steal 10 bases, not horrible but not great either. In Venable’s best season, he stole 29 bases which is good, showing he has legit major league speed. Finally let’s look at Maybin, who in his best season stole 40 bags, which is fantastic and definitely gives him the win in the speed category, so for speed the winner is Maybin, followed by Venable, then Almonte.

The third tool is glove, and for this I decided to look at career Rtot/yr which is the number of defensive runs above or below average the player has been. All three of the players have positive Rtot/yr with Abraham Almonte leading the way with an outstanding 24, Maybin coming in second with 8 and Veneble in the rear with an Rtot/yr of 4. So the for glove it is Almonte winning, followed by Maybin and Veneble in last.

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Average is a great skill for a backup outfielder to have. The ability to come in for the pitcher or another batter and get a hit off the bench is key. In order to determine who has the best average, I looked at two stats: career average and strikeout percentage. After reviewing this, I found that Venable leads the way with a .255 career batting average, but comes in second with a 23.7% strikeout percentage.

After this, we find Maybin with a .246 career batting average and a 22.8% strikeout % (ahead of Venable). While Almonte trails both of his competitors with a .239 career batting average and a 26.8% strikeout rate. Looking at these stats, we find Venable in first, Maybin in second and Almonte in third when it comes to average.

Finally we come to the last tool: power. For this, I decided to look at career slugging percentage. What I found was that Venable leads the way with a .414 slugging percentage, followed by Maybin with .356 and finally we find Almonte at .351.

The final step to proving which player should be the starter is giving them a score from 1-3 based on which place they were at each tool. The scores for each player are as follows, Maybin at 9, Venable at 10 and Almonte at 11.

What this tells me is Maybin is the all-around best player of the three, and should be the fourth outfielder heading into 2015, especially since his biggest weakness has been durability and a limited role may help him excel in 2015.

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Beccarelli: In Defense of Will Venable

When the San Diego Padres traded for Wil Myers in December, they were pretty open that he was who they envisioned starting in center field in the newly-improved Padres lineup. Myers’ defensive ability does have some question marks, but A.J. Preller and the owners don’t seem too worried about it. Why would that be? Probably because they already have a good backup center fielder on the team, Will Venable.

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Imagine it’s the bottom of the 9^th and the Padres have a slim one-run lead, time to put out our best defensive players. Are you going to put out the inexperienced Abraham Almonte? The injury-prone Cameron Maybin? Or Will Venable?

Case in point:

Yeah, that’s what Venable can do. Game saver.

While Venable has never lived up to our expectations with his bat, now that Myers will be starting, I’m okay with that because what we really need from him is his defensive prowess and dependability.

Venable played in 146 games last season, 151 in 2013 and another 148 games in 2012. Compare that to Maybin’s 95 games last season and just 14 games in 2013. Just like Carlos Quentin, Maybin is just too injury-prone. Cameron has never even hit double-digit home runs in a single season while Venable hit 22 in 2013.

Almonte is still too inexperienced to be given the backup role. If he proves himself during Spring Training, great, that makes Venable a valuable trade option other teams might like to acquire. If you’re an opposing team, who would you rather trade for, Venable or Maybin?

That’s what I thought. #VoteVenable