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Padres Editorial: My Padres 2015 Season Predictions

By Nick Lee |
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Sep 23, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Matt Kemp (27) hits a two-run home run against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

I got way more into this than I should have. Crunching all these numbers took a lot of time away from homework and studying for exams. But it was worth it. Although we usually find out predictions are wrong and pointless, they are fun nonetheless. I compared last year’s San Diego Padres with the newcomers that will replace them in the 2015 lineup and lined up their WAR, runs scored and RBI next to each other. If the Padres get the same, or at least similar, production out of the likes of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers (I counted his 2013 rookie season instead) and Derek Norris in 2015 that they produced in 2014, there will be some significant differences to the Padres offense this season.

New Players vs. 2014 Lineup

I ran the numbers of Kemp, Myers and Upton against the 2014 outfielders of Seth Smith, Will Venable, Chris Denorfia and Cameron Maybin. I also ran Norris’ numbers against the combo of Rene Rivera and Yasmani Grandal. Obviously, there was a huge difference. When combining their runs scored with RBI, there was a difference of 119 runs with our shiny new hitters in the lineup. The WAR differential was +2.3. If we add 119 runs to the final run total of 2014 (535), the Padres have a total of 654. That would be very close to the value of the AL Champion Royals and also just shy of the league average. Imagine how many more games the Padres would have won in 2014 with 119 more runs scored. Wow. 

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Now, obviously this is just a fun simulation and nothing concrete. Lots of factors could come into play during the season that I didn’t factor in, most notably, injuries. We are hoping they all can give the team 130+ games this year, but that may not be realistic. The four big acquisitions averaged 129 games played last year. If they can give the Friars around that same number or perhaps even more, good things will happen.

Surprise stories of 2015

The saying “hitting is contagious” becomes a reality. A few returning Padre players catch the fire of the newcomers, especially Yonder Alonso. He has a “breakout” year, and by breakout I mean hitting higher than .250 with more than 10 home runs. Also, Jedd Gyorko will bounce back now that he has more protection in the lineup. In fact, he could be the one doing the protecting for a guy like Kemp or Upton.

Another surprise will be that the Padres will send at least two players to the All-Star Game. My prediction is that Justin Upton and Andrew Cashner will get All-Star nods. The Padres have sent just two position players to the Mid-Summer Classic in the last 5 years (Everth Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez). Upton has great numbers at Petco Park and is my pick for a fast start to 2015.

Lastly, the Padres will hit at least 130 home runs as a team in 2015. Some forget that the Padres pre-off-season frenzy had some potential pop in the lineup. Gyorko, Alonso and Venable can all hit for power when healthy. We have also seen pop from guys like Tommy Medica and Rymer Liriano. The Padres hit 109 big flies last season.

Sep 19, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Justin Upton (8) hits a single against the New York Mets in the fourth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Player Stats

These are my predictions for the projected starting eight for the Padres in 2015. Justin Upton leads the team with 23 HR and 83 RBI. Matt Kemp will have a good season, hovering around .280 with power numbers similar to Upton.

Derek Norris: .256, 8 HR, 51 RBI

Matt Kemp: .283, 22 HR, 80 RBI

Wil Myers: .268 15 HR, 69 RBI

Justin Upton: .269, 23 HR, 83 RBI

Jedd Gyorko: .252, 16 HR, 65 RBI

Yonder Alonso: .268, 13 HR, 67 RBI

Alexi Amarista: .245, 6 HR, 40 RBI

Will Middlebrooks: .251, 11 HR, 52 RBI

Also, here are my picks for the starting rotation. Cashner will put up numbers worthy of an All-Star appearance and Cy Young Award talk. Tyson Ross will build off his strong 2014. Odrisamer Despaigne and Robbie Erlin will both establish themselves as solid options for the back of the rotation, when healthy. It would be foolish to predict the Padres will go without injuries. I foresee some time on the DL for a few rotation and fringe rotation players (see Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson).

Andrew Cashner: 15-8, 3.11 ERA 189 K

Tyson Ross: 13-10, 3.34 ERA, 185 K

Ian Kennedy: 12-11, 3.65 ERA, 179 K

Odrisamer Despaigne: 9-8, 3.77 ERA, 136 K

Robbie Erlin: 8-9, 4.23 ERA, 139 K

 

Sep 9,2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starter Andrew Cashner delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2015 Storylines

“Padres Compete All Season, But Fall Just Short.” I see a lot of parallels between this team and the 2014 Mariners, who still had a chance to make the playoffs on the last day of the season. The Padres will compete all year long and will play tag with the other Wild Card teams for the top spot. I see the Padres competing into late September but ultimately will fall just short. But if they can retain their pieces into 2016, the entire MLB better take notice. The season ends with people being impressed with the Padres and will have them as the team to beat in the NL West in 2016.

“Andrew Cashner Has Season Worthy of Remembrance.”  Cashner will make the Padres forget they almost had Cole Hamels. In fact, Cashner will get Cy Young consideration by achieving 15 wins and at least 175 strikeouts. The rotation will turn into one of the best in the National League with Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy having strong campaigns too.

“Padres Need to Move On From Amarista.” The Padres extended Amarista this off-season. He has been a great utility, “plug and play” kind of player. He hit .239 with 5 HRs in 2014. He hasn’t hit above .240 in any of his three seasons with the Padres. As this season progresses, the Padres will find out that Amarista is not the answer at shortstop and they must look elsewhere.

Sep 21, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Cameron Maybin (L) stands on deck as shortstop Alexi Amarista (5) bats against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Overall Record

After analyzing the possible production from the new lineup and also the stellar pitching staff, I looked through the entire 2015 schedule. I looked at it series by series. I have made the prediction that the Padres will finish 85-77. Had this happened last year, the Padres would still have finished in 3rd place in the division, 9 games back of the Dodgers and 3 games out of the Wild Card. This is also a reversal of last year’s record. I predict that, although they miss the playoffs, they achieve their first winning season since 2010 and second since 2007. All summer long the Padres will be in the hunt, slightly hovering above the .500 mark. They may even swap the 1st place spot in the Wild Card and maybe even the division at times. The Padres were only in 1st place for one day last year, that was March 30th when they came back to beat the Dodgers and go 1-0.

Overall, this season looks promising. What would it take to be considered a “success”? A winning record? Playoff berth? Division title? World Series? I like to hope it will be at least a step in the right direction, towards sustained success.

Next: Are There Any Free Agents Left For The Padres?

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